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WEEK 15 BETTING REVIEW
We are treading water this season with a 50.4% win rate (-0.55 units). Week 15 was more of the same. We finished 5-4 without much to complain or feel lucky about. The season is winding down and the line are getting sharper. I will be more selective with my plays moving forward and try to target weather and injury related plays moving forward. Next week could also bring some games were teams start resting players, which could prove to be actionable. Let’s finish strong!
WEEK 15 BEST BETS: 5-4 (0.0 units)
SEASON LONG: 66-65 (-0.55 units)
WEEK 15 PLAYER PROPS: 3-0 (+1.5 units)
BUF/MIA 1H O20.5 (WIN)
MIA +7 (WIN)
BUF -1/GB -1 (WIN)
We probably should have shut the week down after this one. We played MIA +7 on the lookahead, which didn’t give us any value considering it closed 7. The weather was supposed to be a serious concern for both teams, but specifically for Miami which is what put me onto teasing the Bills. When the weather wasn’t as bad as predicted particularly early on, we targeted the 1st half over which came in easy. This is not a typical way to bet NFL games. However, things change throughout the week. Being able to identify actionable ways to attack those changes can be advantageous. Sometimes that means getting off a play or playing a derivative that is incongruous to previous wagers. Luckily, it worked out for us in this one.
CAR +3 (LOSS)
PIT +8 / PHI -2.5 (WIN)
If we were middling this week, I would have put my money on this game. We grabbed Carolina +3 on the lookahead. They ended up closing the -3 favorite. Because of the expected tight low scoring game, we played PIT in a teaser, which thankfully came through. I’m having difficulty pricing Carolina and understanding what their value is, but any time we get 6 points of value, I’ll play that blind even if it came out a loser.
PHI/CHI O48 (LOSS)
This one started off at a snails pace, but by the end of the 3rd quarter I thought we were going to cover. The Eagles put on the brakes late, which in hindsight could have come because of Hurt’s shoulder injury. When neither team scores in the first quarter, it’s difficult to cover 48 points. We still had a punchers chance. If this game were played a 100 times, I think the over is the right side. It just didn’t work out for us in this one.
BAL +3 (LOSS)
The Ravens had a +0.9 nYPP, yet lost the game by 10 points thanks to 2 turnovers and their anemic 0-3 4th down conversion efficiency. Baltimore was in field goal range 5 separate occasions and manufactured a whopping total of 3 points. I’m not going to say the Ravens should have won the game outright, but I think there is a case to be made that they certainly should have covered.
CIN -2.5 1st Half (LOSS)
We got closing line value, the ball first, and the better team and were never in a position to cover this bet. The Bengals went on to destroy the Buccaneers in a game that was essentially gifted by 4 Tampa Bay turnovers. Besides getting the ball first, there was nothing about this angle that came to fruition. It was a bad play and a worse result.
NYG +4 (WIN)
This line went up to 5.5 before crashing down to +4 at kick. I understood why people looked to back the Commanders, but giving that many points in a divisional matchup with so much on the line seemed outrageous to me. Washington destroyed the stats, but the Giants lose the stats every week and still have found ways to win games. I want to fade the Giants giving points and I want to play on them when they are catching them. Considering they will most likely be dogs the rest of the season, you know which way I’ll be leaning.
By Steve Rieder
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