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WEEK 18 BETTING REVIEW
Week 18 Best Bet Record: 6-2 (+7.2 units)
Regular Season Best Bet Record: 84-72 (+16.37 units) 54%
Betting Predators All Time Best Bet Record: 154-121 (+30.64 units) 56%
After a rough start through the first 8 weeks which featured some horrendous luck and bad beats, I was convinced that our process was correct. The larger sample size proved just that. We didn’t hit our 59% mark that we did last year, but we still find a way to end in the positive in the most efficient market. Anyone can win in the short term and some -EV bettors can still manage to have a winning season. But, at nearly 300 games, I believe that I have proven to be a long term winner. We won’t win every game, day, week, or month, but I believe our work, process, and insight is sustainable. I appreciate your support throughout the regular season and, with cautious optimism, look forward to a profitable playoffs.
TB 1st Quarter Moneyline (LOSS)
The Bucs received the opening kickoff and proceeded to go on a 10 play, 70 yard drive for a touchdown. They then forced Falcons to punt after a 3 and out. With half the quarter finished, I thought we were money. But the Bucs had to punt it back after their own 3 and 0. After a Falcons touchdown, our good fortune turned to a wash. But the Bucs wrestled defeat from the jaws of victory, fumbling the ball on their own 33 yard line. The Falcons could only muster 3 yards, but with a opportunistic field goal, we lost. I felt good about our wager, but obviously disappointed with the result.
CAR +5 (WIN)
We had great closing line value with this hitting 3 at some shops (although -3.5 was the official close). A 10-7 final was the second ugliest game of the day behind the Jets/Dolphins. With an anticipated low scoring affair, catching the points seemed advantageous. Carolina lost the turnover battle and were -1.7 ypp and still managed to the win the game straight up, which made my New Orleans O7.5 regular season wins ticket a loser.
KC -2.5 / CLE +8.5 (LOSS)
After KC won the front leg of our teaser, we had to wait for CLE to finish the deal. Our patience was not rewarded. The Browns were positive nYPP, but couldn’t manage to keep this within a one score affair. They received the ball back after surrendering a Steelers touchdown with 4:37 left in the game. They went on a 13 play, 23 yard drive that took every second of the game, which is exactly what the winning team would strive for. Deshaun Watson was horrendous like he’s been all year. I was concerned about him when placing the bet, but assumed we would have a low scoring, ball control type game and stay within the number. That unfortunately didn’t come to fruition.
ATL -5.5 (WIN)
Anticipating the Bucs sitting their starters in the second half, we took ATL laying the points. They went on to score 20 unanswered points after half time to win a meaningless game. Despite playing most of the first half, Brady looked pedestrian against one of the worst defenses in the league. It will be interesting to see how the GOAT does against a much more difficult matchup in the Dallas Cowboys.
MIN / CHI U42.5 (WIN)
I assumed we would get a conservative game plan in a must lose spot for the Bears and a meaningless game for the Vikings. The Vikings didn’t get the memo as they threw for 341 collective yards. Even Dalvin Cooks’ injury didn’t slow down the Purple People Eaters, but the last 5 minutes went scoreless and we covered by a hook. Thank you Nathan Peterman and Tim Boyle!
PHI 1st Half -8 (WIN)
I targeted the Eagles in the first half for fear they let their foot off the gas and let the 3rd string Giants back into the game, which, coincidentally, is exactly what happened. The Eagles held the Giants scoreless as they covered the 1st half total with ease. The Giants posted 13 4th quarter points to cover the game.
CIN ML / DEN ML (WIN)
I liked CIN on teh moneyline with Huntley at QB. With Brown at the helm, it was a no-brainer. After securing 17 point lead deep into the 3rd, they surrendered 2 meaningless field goals and covered with ease. DEN was supposed to be playing against backups, but Staley didn’t get the memo. Even with the coach’s stupidity, the Broncos won the game outright and covered our parlay.
DET +6 (WIN)
I highlighted this game with hopes that the Lions would be eliminated from playoff contention and we would get a better number. With the Seahawks mustering a come from behind win, the Lions were drawing dead. When the public overreacted and pushed this to 6, we pounced. A Dan Cambell coached Lions team will never lay down. If anything, I was more convinced we would get a better effort from DET because the playoffs were out of reach. It was a good ending to a profitable week.
By Steve Rieder
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