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Steve Rieder has accumulated a 198-154-1 record, +29.01 units over the course of the 2021 & 2022 NFL seasons combined
WEEK 4 BEST BETS: 3-6 (-1.95 units)
2-Unit Plays: 3-1
1-Unit Plays: 0-5
Carolina Panthers +3
Carolina closed as the favorite securing us four points of CLV. Unfortunately, that does not make a bit of difference unless you cash your ticket. With that being said, the process was correct, the results were not. In the long term, these are the types of plays we want to be on. As far as takeaways, Baker Mayfield is not a good quarterback and the Cardinals are a much better second half team than they are in the first half. I also think Matt Rhule’s job is in serious jeopardy. I’m having difficulty pegging Arizona’s value, but I’m pretty convinced Carolina is terrible.
San Francisco 49ers -1
This 2-unit play cashed with ease last night which continued the trend of us getting CLV and Shannahan’s dominance over McVay. Garoppolo has a low ceiling but a high floor. You know the 49ers are going to bring it on defense on a weekly basis, but identifying the offensive matchup edges or deficiencies on a weekly basis should prove beneficial and put us on or off San Fran. As for the Rams, I think they will be just fine. So much so that I just played some -4 this morning after news Dak was officially not ready to return. I think the Cooper Rush commentary is over blown.
Atlanta Falcons +7.5/Los Angeles Rams +7.5
Atlanta not only covered, but won the game outright. The Falcons continue to be a profitable play so far this year. With that said, I’m not looking to run to the window this week against the Bucs who will certainly be motivated after being embarrassed against the Chiefs. We lost this teaser on the Rams leg who got destroy last night. I’m not one to normally play both sides of the game, but I truly thought it would be a one score contest. I was wrong and will certainly use this as a learning experience.
Miami Dolphins Team Total OVER 20.5
Would this have gone over if Tua hadn’t been hurt? I certainly would be more optimistic about the chances. The Dolphins 6.3 yards per play suggest they should have eclipsed this number. I think it was right directionally and we had closing line value we always want. Not much we can do about this one, but it wont’ be a play I’ll be targeting with Bridgewater under center.
New York Giants/Chicago Bears 1st Half UNDER 20
The market went below this threshold, but still we were burned for multiple reasons. The muffed punt put the Giants into scoring position without doing much offensively to deserve it. Both of the Giants touchdowns were on scrambles from Daniel Jones. If either of those plays result in a field goal attempt, we probably cash this ticket. I still think the Giants 1st half unders are the way to look directionally moving forward.
Green Bay Packers -2.5/Arizona Cardinals +7.5
After an ugly first half, the Cardinals came out and blitzed the Panthers in the second half to win the game handedly. As easy as that victory came, the Packers gave us heart failure by nearly losing the game to the Patriots third string quarterback. Thankfully, they were able to take care of business and cash this ticket in overtime. It always feels good to cash a teaser when the spread doesn’t.
Cincinnati Bengals -2
Would this game have turned out differently had Tua not been concussed? I don’t think so. I’m pretty confident the Bengals had this one all the way. The Dolphins defense was a beleaguered group after defending the Bills for 90 plays 4 days prior. If the Bengals can get their offensive line in order, they could be poised to make another run. If not, they could be in trouble.
Green Bay Packers/New England Patriots U42.5
Hello darkness my old friend. 2.5 points of CLV does little to put money in our pockets. Even with a third string quarterback, this one covers even without the overtime period. I won’t be necessarily targeting either team’s total moving forward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers/Kansas City Chiefs U47.5
This may have been the only game this week we didn’t have CLV . In fact the line closed at 47.5 after dipping down all the way to 45 after we played it. With news that the Buccaneers playmakers would be available, this line shot right back up. It honestly didn’t matter. The Chiefs almost covered the number by themselves. This was the wrong play. I’ll own it and move on.