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Editor's Note: Steve Rieder has accumulated a 205-166-1 record, +22.06 units over the course of the 2021 & 2022 NFL seasons. Get access to his full record, pick by pick, on our NFL bets tracker spreadsheet
Week 6 Best Bets: 4-6 (-5 units)
Season To Date: 27-29 (-3.23 units)
SEA +1 1st HALF (WON)
SEA/AZ OVER 50 (LOSS)
This one cashed with ease as Seattle continues with their dominant 1st half performance and the Cardinals continue to be brutal. What was more of a surprise to me was how the Cardinals never showed up and how the offense simply couldn’t take advantage of a Seattle defense that has been torched this season. I don’t think the Seattle defense suddenly learned how to play. I’ve downgraded Arizona more off of this performance than upgraded Seattle.
NE +8.5/NO +8 (WON)
NE +3 (WON)
The Patriots have been dominant in back to back weeks. The market reacted to Mac Jones being on the bench, but Zappe filled in just fine and their defense has been lights out. I still think the Patriots are a good teaser option in Week 7. The Saints wrestled defeat from the jaws of victory as the Bengals had a go-ahead touchdown in the waning minutes of the game. Their loss was our game, however, as the teaser provides us the protection the spread would not have. The Saints have too many injured to get me excited about them moving foward despite putting up 26 points and the Bengals have been so hot and cold from game to game, and even within a game, its tough for me to feel confident backing them.
JAX/IND UNDER 42.5 (LOSS)
This was in trouble by halftime and the second half was no help. We secured a point and a half of CLV, but that won’t keep us warm at night. The Jaguars defense are susceptible and their offense is maddening inconsistent. They weren’t nearly as good as the final suggests. Outside of the worst teams in the league, I’m not sure the Jags should be laying a field goal to anyone, even at home. I have a strong lean to the Giants +3. The Colts got down early and just didn’t stop throwing. Without their top two running backs, they threw early and often, which may have been the catalyst for the over.
GB -7 (LOSS)
Not much to say about this one. I thought the Packers would have a spirited effort returning home after a loss. I was wrong. There is something seriously wrong in Green Bay. I have also made a major upgrade to the Jets off this victory. Both New York teams are playing about their talent, but that doesn’t make it any less real.
KC +3 (LOSS)
Sometimes you have the right side and just lose. The Chiefs were projected to win for the vast majority of the game. That changed with 2 minutes left to go. Even then, there was an outside chance this would cash. But as fate (or Josh Allen) would have it, we did not. I’m not adjusting either of these teams off this performance and I remain steadfast that the Chiefs were the right side.
SF -5.5 (LOSS)
From the jump, I knew we were in trouble. Money poured in on the Falcons on Sunday and the Falcons rewarded their backers. After a touchdown to open the game, followed up by a fumble return for a score, the 49ers never were ina position to cover. The Falcoins have been supported by sharp money throughout the year. This is the first time I faded them, which clearly was a mistake. Our KC -1.5 lookahead is sitting pretty with the market now at -3.
MIA +2.5 (LOSS)
This one was brutal. When the Dolphins lost their starting quarterback for the fourth consecutive week, I thought Bridgewater would actually be an upgrade. In retrospect, I’m not sure if that was the case. With that said, the Dolphins were driving with a chance to tie and cover late before Teddy threw an interception. It was just that kind of day. Every close call, went against us. The RedZone Witching Hour was not on our side.
PHI -4.5 (WON)
The Eagles jumped out to an impressive 17-0 lead before nearly squandering it in the second half. Still, they were able to overcome and show why they are a top 3 team in the NFL. I remain convinced the Cowboys are overrated. Still, I’m not sure backing the Lions is a place to fade them, even with Detroit off a bye.
SIDES: 13-12 (-2.25u)
TOTALS: 5-7 (-3.9u)
TEASERS: 5-5 (+2.57u)
DERIVATIVES: 5-5 (+0.35u)
By Steve Rieder
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