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WILD CARD BETTING REVIEW
Wild Card Best Bet Record: 3-1 (+3.8 units)
Regular Season Best Bet Record: 87-73 (+20.17 units) 54%
Betting Predators All Time Best Bet Record: 157-122 (+34.44 units) 56%
Having four plays on such a limited slate is uncommon. I’m usually very selective come playoff time with my releases, so much so, I have yet to release one for the divisional round. With that said, we had a very profitable week. Before we move forward, let’s look back at the week that was.
BUF -9.5 (LOSS)
We destroyed the closing line by 4 points, but the Bills were unable to destroy the Dolphins. Buffalo was only able to win by 3 in a game that felt like it could go either way throughout despite Skylar Thompson at quarterback for Miami. The numbers suggest it wasn’t as close of a game as the eye test and the scoreboard suggest. The Bills averaged 2.6 yards per play more than the Dolphins, but timely turnovers and a defensive touchdown almost thwarted the Bills Cinderella season. Miami’s defense is uniquely qualified to slow down Josh Allen and company. I’m not sure the Bengals will feel comfortable implementing a zero coverage look like Miami so readily implemented.
CIN -5.5 (WON)
This is another game where our closing line value was almost for naught. The undermanned Ravens looked poised to upset the Bengals, but a Tyler Huntley goalline fumble returned for a touchdown completely changed the result of the game. In fact, BAL outyarded CIN by 1.2 ypp. A case could be made that we should have lost this wager and won the Buffalo -9.5. Regardless, we split either way. It wasn’t the best spot for CIN having faced BAL the week before. The Ravens have history with Joe Burrow, which aided their already stout defense. I’m not convinced the Bills will have the same success this week.
NYG +3 (WON)
I was convinced the Giants were a play at +3. However, many people I respect in the industry were freely laying -2.5. When I dove head first into the numbers, they favored the Vikings as well. There were some concerns that my fandom was getting in the way of my betting. Still fully aware of the possibility, I never wavered from my belief that the Giants coaching staff would put their talentless roster in a position to win the game. Lucky for us, they lived up to my lofty expectations. I’m less bullish of their prospects this week.
JAX +9.5 / SF -2.5 (WON)
This play was just an attempt to get SF on my card. I loved SF laying less than a field goal, but I only play advantge teasers and I wasn’t comfortable backing the Bucs, which proved to be prophetic. I had a lean to the Jags, but sharp people were on both sides of the game. On the pod, Sleepy and Dave convinced me enough that JAX was the right side. I can’t promise I wasn’t cursing them out during much of the game, but their insights held true. Trevor Lazerus Lawrence did something that has never been done in the playoffs, and, in doing so, saved our teaser ticket. I’ll be looking to fade Sunshine and company this week, however.
By Steve Rieder
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