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STEVE RIEDER'S LOOKAHEAD FORECAST HISTORY: 4-1
Week 4 Lookahead Forecast: SF -1. The game closed SF -2 and the 49ers won 24-9. (WINNER)
Week 5 Lookahead Forecast: MIN -6.5. The game closed 8.5 and the Vikings won 29-22 . (WINNER)
Week 6 Lookahead Forecast: PHI -5.5. The game closed 7 and the Eagles won by 26-17. (WINNER)
Week 7 Lookahead Forecast: KC -1.5. The game closed -1 and the Chiefs won 44-23. (WINNER)
Week 8 Lookahead Forecast: NYG/SEA OVER 43: The game closed 44.5 and the final score was 27-13. (LOSS)
Week 9 Lookahead Forecast: LAC/ATL O47.5. Current Line: 49.5 (TBD)
Week 10 Lookahead Forecast: SF -3.5 (-115)
San Francisco has been fluctuating throughout my power ratings, but I’m bullish on them moving forward. Despite back to back bad losses to Atlanta and Kansas City, they traded for Christian McCaffrey and went on to dominate the division rival Rams. There are few players in the league that are worth 1 point and only a handful that move the needle above that. Christian McCaffrey could possibly be one of the select few who impact the line that much. Jimmy Garappolo is more of a game manager, so the more weapons he has at his disposal, the better. He isn’t the gunslinger that will chuck the ball down the field, but he is really efficient at getting the ball into McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle’s hands. I anticipate raising the 49ers a half a point going into next week just because of Christian McCaffrey’s familiarity and understanding of the offense. Having a coach in Kyle Shannahan and his ability to scheme offenses, is certainly a positive for San Fran.
On the flip side, the Chargers have been a mess all year. Their offensive line is porous, their receivers perpetually hurt, and Justin Herbert has been underwhelming based upon his preseason expectations. The 49ers defensive line should have their way in this one which should make this game even more challenging Justin Herbert and company. To make matters worse, Austin Ekeler is on the injury report again. Although he should play this week, his injury concerns are legitimate based on his history. I make the game SF -4.25, but I think there are enough matchup discrepancies that we find value in the lookahead. With the leading indicator books showing SF -5, we take advantage of the -3.5 and -4 in the marketplace.
By Steve Rieder
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