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With NFL Week 10 officially in the books, we adjust our power ratings and look forward to a new slate of games for NFL Week 11. As with every week, to determine a power-rated line, take the difference between the teams' power rating and factor in home field advantage. Remember, power ratings are the start of the handicap and should be a foundation to build upon. These values represent what a team is on any given week. It will certainly fluctuate as the year progresses.
Biggest Upgrade: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were left for dead after firing Frank Reich and hiring their former center who had zero coaching experience. Count me as one of their detractors. The typical boost expected from a team after the coach is fired was negated because of the inexperienced replacement. However, it was reported on game day that it would be Matt Ryan starting at quarterback and not the rookie Sam Ehlinger. This was enough to prompt me to take the +4.5 with the Colts. They dominated a Raiders team that were not left on the verge of tears, they actually fell. I’ve upgraded the Colts after a win in which they were +2.2 in YPP, but I’m also concerned that some of that will not carry over. After all, the Raiders prepared for a different style of quarterback all week and I’m not convinced Jeff Saturday is good.
Biggest Downgrade: Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders edge the Rams by the narrowest of margins for this infamous title of biggest downgrade. The Raiders are hurt, in disarray, and have dissension in the ranks and in the locker room. Derek Carr who has been a consummate leader, was brought to tears in defense of his coach, in frustration of the teams performance and his disgust for some of his fellow players. A team that seemed to win every close game last year, has lost seemingly every one this year. At 2-7, their dreams may have been crushed by the Colts last week. This is a dead team walking.
Something of Note:
Somebody left the gate open. The Bills, who have been the best team in the league for the entire year, have seen their power rating lead evaporate almost entirely. With the Chiefs holding court narrowly behind them, we see a few teams that seem to be making a move in the top 11. Most notably, the 49ers, Ravens, and Dolphins are teams on the rise and I’m more bullish on than the market. The Eagles had a rash of injuries and lost as 11 point favorites, but I think they will end up being just fine by year’s end and should make a push for the NFC title. I spent the last two weeks finally putting some respect on the Vikings. At some point, you are what you say you are. The Cowboys and the Bengals are two good teams, but flawed. Both offensive lines aren’t what they used to be. Tampa and Tennessee were upgraded a full point this week, but they find themselves in the top 11 only because I’m down on the rest of the league.
Week 11 Power Ratings
Week 11 Power Ratings vs. Lines
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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