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LOOKAHEAD FORECAST HISTORY: 5-2
Week 4: SF -1. The game closed SF -2 and the 49ers won 24-9. (WINNER)
Week 5: MIN -6.5. The game closed 8.5 and the Vikings won 29-22 . (WINNER)
Week 6: PHI -5.5. The game closed 7 and the Eagles won by 26-17. (WINNER)
Week 7: KC -1.5. The game closed -1 and the Chiefs won 44-23. (WINNER)
Week 8: NYG/SEA OVER 43: The game closed 44.5 and the final score was 27-13. (LOSS)
Week 9: LAC/ATL O47.5. The game closed 49.5 and the final score was 20-17. (LOSS)
Week 10: SF -3.5. The game closed SF -7.5 and the final score was 22-16. (WIN)
Week 12: PHI -6.5.
Week 12: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
The Eagles had a brutal loss on Monday night and have several key players injured, which has brought their Week 11 line down. There is anticipation that some of those players will be healthy next week for Week 12. The Eagles have been 3rd in my power ratings for most of the year, and despite that disappointing loss last week they still are. I’m not alone in being bullish on them as Football Outsiders have them ranked second in the league. Ultimately, this is still a really talented team on both sides of the ball that was due for a loss. In hindsight, it was no surprise that a division rival had success against them considering the unique style Jalen Hurts plays with. The Packers haven’t played Hurts since his rookie year and, frankly, he is a completely different quarterback since then. I expect Green Bay’s 7th worst rush defense to have difficulty slowing down Philadelphia’s 6th best rushing attack.
Green Bay was 4-6 heading into Week 10, coming off an absolutely must win against Dallas. After a thrilling come from behind overtime victory, there was optimism that the Pack was back. With Minnesota running away with the division, Green Bay needed to string wins together to stay in the wild card race. The market expected the Packers to do just that as a Thursday night +3.5 home favorite against the Titans. The Packers simply didn’t show up as they won the turnover battle, but still lost the game by 10 and yards per play by 1.8 points. Green Bay has a 0 nYPP, but came out of the Thursday night contest 1.5 worse than an average team in my Power Ratings. The case could be made that Philadelphia’s HFA will be negated because PHI has extra time to prepare. I’d argue that extra time for GB may actually be worse considering their playoff dreams may have been crushed and they had to lament the reality for the last 10 days. Green Bay is simply not a good football team and the Eagles are significantly better than we saw last time out.
By Steve Rieder
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