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Steve Rieder has accumulated a 201-160-1 record, +27.06 units over the course of the 2021 & 2022 NFL seasons combined
By Steve Rieder
With NFL Week 5 officially in the books, we adjust our power ratings and look forward to a new slate of games for NFL Week 6. As with every week, to determine a power-rated line, take the difference between the teams' power rating and factor in home field advantage. Remember, power ratings are the start of the handicap and should be a foundation to build upon. These values represent what a team is on any given week. It will certainly fluctuate as the year progresses.
Biggest Upgrade: New York Jets
The Jets receive my biggest upgrade after their 40-17 loss in a game they were catching a field goal at kickoff. It was yet another feather in the cap of Head Coach Robert Saleh and continued confidence from this young Jets squad. The post game press conferences screamed of momentum and camaraderie that could be a catalyst moving forward. With all that said, I’m not making this move based solely on the performance on Sunday. I think I was too low on the Jets coming into the week and I had an off market power rating. When I have a strong opinion on a team, I’m ok with being on an island. But with the Jets, I don’t have a great feel. I didn’t think there was much of an upgrade from Flacco to Wilson, and I’m not sure his numbers prove me wrong, but the lift he seems to have given this team is noticeable.
Biggest Downgrade: Miami Dolphins
I had significantly more downgrades this week than upgrades, but the biggest drop off comes in the form of the Miami Dolphins. Sure they got beat 40-17 as a favorite, but this has everything to do with the quarterback situation. If 7th round rookie, Skylar Thompson gets the start, I’d probably lower this even more. At the moment, I don’t have a great evaluation of him or the quarterbacks availability, which is why I don’t feel comfortable getting involved in the Miami game this week.
Something to Note:
The Buffalo Bills came into the year as the heavy favorites in the NFL. Since the regular season started, I have upgraded the Bills 2.25 points, which is a massive increase considering they were already league’s best at the start of the year. Even with all the Bills’ secondary injuries that should have stunted their ascension, they enter Arrowhead laying 3 points to a home team that is second in my power ratings. The Chiefs started the year second my ratings and still find themselves firmly entrenched as the second best team, 1.5 points better than the year’s inception. The NFL schedule makers have had some great matchups this early in the season, but not making this Bills/Chiefs matchup a standalone game is a fireable offense. We will learn something about these two NFL giants on Sunday afternoon. Get your popcorn ready.
Week 6 Power Ratings
Week 6 Power Ratings vs. Lines
