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Editor's Note: Steve Rieder has accumulated a 207-172-1 record, +13.16 units over the course of the 2021 & 2022 NFL seasons. Get access to his full record, pick by pick, on our NFL bets tracker spreadsheet
STEVE RIEDER'S NFL LOOKAHEAD FORECAST HISTORY:
LOOKAHEAD FORECAST HISTORY: 4-0
Week 4 Lookahead Forecast: SF -1. The game closed SF -2 and the 49ers won 24-9. (WINNER)
Week 5 Lookahead Forecast: MIN -6.5. The game closed 8.5 and the Vikings won 29-22 . (WINNER)
Week 6 Lookahead Forecast: PHI -5.5. The game closed 7 and the Eagles won by 26-17. (Winner)
Week 7 Lookahead Forecast: KC -1.5. The game closed -1 and the Chiefs won 44-23.
Week 8 Lookahead Forecast: NYG/SEA OVER 43: The game current line is 44.5. (Pending)
Week 9 Lookahead Forecast: LAC/ATL O47.5 (Good to 48)
We have had success going with the favorites in the lookahead (4-0 to start the year), but I’m not seeing any major value on them in the market. I gave a hard look at SEA +3.5, but the ARI revenge factor kept me away from striking early. I was interested in the Colts +6 vs. the Patriots, but I don’t know how Indy will respond to Matt Ryan’s benching and just how their neophyte QB will play in the system. Belichick historically has success against young quarterbacks, but has his druthers against mobile signal callers.
All of that leads us to the total in the Chargers / Falcons game. Both defenses are below average and both offenses are slightly above, but we have a few things to our advantage that are not being priced into the market. First, Keenan Allen is back from injury. As much as Mike Williams’ departure hurts, Allen has forever been the safety blanket for Justin Herbert. Secondly, Kyle Pitts is back in the lineup for Atlanta. Perhaps more importantly, Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith stated that Cordarrelle Patterson could come off IR as early as next week. That doesn’t necessarily mean that he will play, but he’s been posting workouts for the last two weeks on social media. Atlanta loves to pound the rock and with the Chargers ranking 26th against the run, there should be plenty of opportunities. Combine that with the number one targets back for both teams and potentially getting Patterson back as well, we have to look to the over.
By Steve Rieder
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