Let me take you back to a magical time - a rookie named William Anthony Perry was causing a lot of excitement as a 6’3”, 335 defensive tackle who also moonlighted as a fullback for the Chicago Bears and had already notched two rushing TDs. Vegas sharps, degens and the sports betting public alike all clambered to see “The Fridge” make history as the heaviest goal scorer in Super Bowl history.
At the same time it was Art Manteris, then boss of the Caesar Sportsbook, who acquiesced and set the first ever professional football game prop of 20-1 for a Perry “Anytime TD.” The prop was so enormously popular that betting legend Jimmy Vaccaro at the MGM quickly followed suit and the prop closed at 2-1.
Perry proceeded to score a touchdown on two rushes and Las Vegas lost money, but the prop appeal stayed. The next year there were eight more Super Bowl props to wager on, then 12 and so on.
Currently, there are over 350 Super Bowl props available at various gaming establishments and offshore sports books. It's estimated over $6 billion will be wagered on the "big game" this Sunday, with as much as 30% of the tickets being placed on prop wagers. With that said, let’s take a few moments to dive into some of the more potentially profitable, interesting and outrageous "exotic" props being offered this Sunday, in addition to some of the general do's and don'ts for your overall Super Bowl LV prop betting strategy.
Props to "fade"
If you are an avid listener of the Betting Predators podcast, then you've probably never heard host Sleepy J offer up the result of the Super Bowl coin toss as a "best bet." Props that are completely by chance and not predisposed by a result (i.e. opening coin flip, will a singer fall off of the stage, how many car commercials will be aired, what color Gatorade will be dumped on the winning coach) are to be obviously avoided. Not to say these props aren’t super fun to wager on, but we avoid them simply because both sides are juiced on a 50/50 outcome - such as the coin flip - or unreasonably juiced to the side of a highly likely outcome. For example, you can wager there will not be a wardrobe malfunction for -3500 when it comes to the halftime show or pre-game national anthem. For me, that’s a pass. Now that’s not to say your favorite performer isn’t the Weeknd and you're subsequently comfortable wagering on whether he will mention President Biden, wear a hat, or open up with “Starboy.” It’s your money at stake here, and gambling is meant to be fun, especially when it comes to the Super Bowl. Luckily the books cap these more whimsical wagers. All the same, bet small, real small, on these. Even if your Weeknd fandom gut says otherwise.
Props to "buy"
Spreads and totals are as sharp as they will be all season for Sunday, and the best advantage a bettor has at this point late in the week is that we now have as many data points as possible to make our betting decisions. Where that matters most is on the players and coaches - Tom Brady, for example, will likely be your best friend here, simply because he has the largest game sample size of any player in modern NFL history. Brady's Super Bowl passing history alone shows incredible numbers in passing attempts (35,48, 62, 56, 50), and the over/under for his attempts is in fact set at 39.5 (-125). If that Brady career-long trend reads true, then Patrick Mahomes will need to respond in kind as well. Tyreek Hill, on the other hand, has 9 games with a minimum of 10 targets this season. Hill was targeted 15 times in these teams' first meeting this season and 10/11 times in the Chiefs' past two playoff games. His over/under for total receptions is currently around 7.5 (-125). However you play this Sunday, bet smart and bet responsibly, but also make it fun. After all, the Super Bowl is the last game of an accomplished NFL season in spite of a worldwide pandemic. We have two full weeks of research and data on one game alone to sift through, so while the numbers might be extra "sharp" compared to past weeks, our information might just be even sharper.
Pregame Exotic Props:
- How long will the national anthem take to be sung – 1 min 59 sec (over +105, under -145)
- Who will sing the most words – Church -115, Sullivan -115
- Will Sullivan omit/ forget a word in the National Anthem – Yes +750, No -2000
- Will Church omit/ forget a word in the National Anthem – Yes +800, No -2000
- Will any score take less time than it took to sing the National Anthem – Yes -290, No +190
- Will a fan run onto the field during the game – Yes +700, No -1600
- Will any player propose to his girlfriend on field during/ after game – Yes +550, No -1000
- Wil there be a flea flicker during the game – Yes +175, No -260
Halftime Exotic Props
- How many songs will be sung during halftime – 8 (over -210, under +155)
- The Weeknd wardrobe changes – 0.5 (over -150, under +245)
- The Weeknd mention Trump – Yes +575, No -1100
- The Weeknd mention Biden – Yes +700, No -1600
- The Weeknd mention Canada – Yes +375, No -1600
- Will the Weeknd have Ariana Grande on stage – Yes +220, No -300
- Will the Weeknd have Bella Hadid on stage – Yes +600, No -1200
- Will the Weeknd have Doja Cat on stage – Yes +300, No -450
- Will the Weeknd have Drake on stage – Yes +350, No -550
- Will there be wardrobe malfunction – Yes +900, No -3500
- Will a football be used as a prop – Yes +375, No -600
In-Game Exotic Props
- First missed FG of the game – wide left +110, wide right +110, short blocked or cross bar +400
- How many players will have a passing attempt – 2.5 (over +115, under -150)
- What will happen to the price of Bitcoin during the Superbowl – Go up -150, Go down +110
- What will be mentioned first – Brady 10th SB appearance -190, Brady’s age (43) +145
- How many times will President Biden be mentioned – 1 (over +300, under -500)
- How many times will ex-President Trump be mentioned – .5 (over +400, under -700)
Cross-Sport and Celebrity Props
- How many times will Belichick be mentioned – 1 (over +350, under +245)
- How many times will the Patriots be mentioned – 2 (over -180, under +135)
- How many times will Gisele Bundchen be shown – 1.5 (over -240, under -165)
- How many times will Roger Goodell be shown – 1.5 (over EV, under -140)
- Puppy Bowl XVII MVP – Male -130, Female -110
- Puppy Bowl XVII winning team – Team Fluff +105, Team Ruff -135