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Up until Sunday morning, so much of my Super Bowl portfolio was placed on openers or reacting to injury updates, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t actionable plays that can be found by shopping around or fading the public. Below are five plays, that may be scarce, but are still worth your action.
Bet: 2nd Quarter OVER 14 points (-115)
Book: Circa, Bovada
Because: The game total has seen nothing but over money. Here we get a repressed number and avoid the history of the Super Bowl starting slow.
Bet: Kadarius Toney OVER 2.5 Receptions (-140)
Book: MGM, but playable at FanDuel
Because: With positive reports out of KC, Toney has seen his props get hit throughout the week. Sharper books have his over way higher than -140.
Bet: Justin Watson UNDER 1.5 Receptions (-160)
Book: PointsBet
Because: With JuJu and Kadarius back in the fold, Watson’s dreams of Super Bowl stardom are fading. Watson only has 15 receptions on the year and only had multiple catches in 4 games.
Bet: UNDER 10.5 Penalties (-130)
Book: BetOnline
Because: Although this particular crew calls more than the average number of penalties, Super Bowls tend to have lesser penalties called. The NFL and their fans want to see the players, not the zebras. It may be the biggest of games, but it is also an entertainment business.
Bet: Team that scores last and wins game: YES (-200)
Book: BetOnline
Because: We may get a better number closer to kickoff because the public will inevitably be on the plus money, but Super Bowls have historically shown that the winning team has been the last team to score. With the highest of stakes, the team in the lead simply cannot afford to take their foot off the gas.
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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