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The Honda Classic: Round 4 Best Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· PGA,Golf,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here

Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

  • Strokes Gained: Approach

  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green

  • Strokes Gained: Putting

  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

OVERALL TOP BUYS (Using Round 3 Data):

***Matthew NeSmith +4.83

***Alex Noren +4.62

**Nick Taylor +4.97

**Mito Pereira +4.83

**Brian Stuard +3.68

**Billy Horschel +3.40

**Shane Lowry +2.23

OVERALL TOP FADES (Using Round 3 Data):

****Brian Gay -9.25

***Ryan Palmer -4.69

***Brett Drewitt -4.48

***Bronson Burgoon -3.84

***Austin Cook -3.10

***Peter Uihlien -2.77

***Robert Streb +0.13

**Louis Oosthuizen -4.88

**Martin Trainer -4.43

**Stephan Jaeger -3.02

Round 4 Matchup Best Bets/Finishing Props (0.5 Units):

NeSmith -0.5 > Oosthuizen @ CZ +150 (+9.71)

Horschel Best Finishing Position > Oosthuizen @ FD -235 (+8.28)

Pereira > Fowler @ BO -145 (+8.14)

Vegas +0.5 > Oosthuizen @ BO -135 (+7.58)

Noren > Frittelli @ DK -155 (+7.09)

Nick Taylor -0.5 > Mullinax -110 (+7.00)

Willett -0.5 > Drewitt @ Bet365 -120 (+6.72)

NeSmith > Rai @ BO -115 (+6.45)

Creel -0.5 > Gay @ CZ +110 (+6.34)

Nick Taylor +0.5 > McCarthy @ BO -130 (+4.62)

Stuard Top 20 Finish @ FD -110

Best Finish Without Berger:

(0.25 Units) Lowry +225 @ CZ

(0.15 Units) Noren 33:1 @ CZ

(0.05 Units) Horschel 200:1 @ CZ

(0.05 Units) Stuard 500:1 @ CZ

Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations

*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of threshold metrics a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade" in out of:

Strokes Gained Putting

Strokes Gained Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Tee To Green

Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green

SGR = Strokes Gained Net Rating

BS = Ball Striking

OTT = Off The Tee

APP = Approach

PUTT = Putting

ARG = Around The Green

T2G = Tee To Green

FRL = First Round Leader

SRL = Second Round Leader

TRL = Third Round Leader

DK = DraftKings

FD = FanDuel

CZ = Caesars

BO = BetOnline

DSI = BetDSI

MB = MyBookie

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