By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
Come Thursday at Augusta National we’ll be seeing the biggest of stars in the golf world tee off, but two of those stars are coming into this tournament with clear injuries that have severely hindered their form over the past few months. Bryson DeChambeau has struggled mightily as of late and has even admitted to the media that he’s roughly “80% healthy” but couldn’t pass up the chance to compete at The Masters.
Defending champ Hideki Matsuyama, on the other hand, is still dealing with a neck injury that has forced multiple withdrawals over the past month of PGA Tour play. Given the weather we might see this week, with some extra cold winds in tow, I want to find a way to best fade these two golfers who are still being propped up in the market by public bettors who love to bet them. We’re already on Hideki/Bryson to each miss the cut, but I did some further digging and found the following matchups below with golfers who have rated well in our strokes gained model over the past three months. I will be adding two units total on these matchups below to include on our official tournament betting card. The “TNT” stands for full tournament matchup (72 holes) while “RD1” stands for Round 1 only matchup (18 holes). If either golfer is forced to withdraw, these bets will be counted as winning tickets. Quarter unit on each wager below:
Fade Hideki Matchups/Three Balls (0.25 Units Each)
(RD1) JT > Hideki/Piot @ FD -135
(RD1) Scheffler -0.5 > Hideki @ BO -133
(TNT) Niemann > Hideki @ FD -112
= 0.75 Units
Fade Bryson Matchups/Three Balls (0.25 Units Each)
(RD1) Woods > Bryson @ DK +115
(RD1) Casey > Bryson @ BO -138
(RD1) Smith > Bryson/Casey @ FD +120
(TNT) Burns > Bryson @ DK -160
(TNT) Oosthuizen > Bryson @ FD -164
= 1.25 Units
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com