The Memorial Tournament:
Round 3 Bets, Buys & Fades
Lead golf betting analyst Chris Dell breaks down his top bets, buys and fades for Round 3 at the Memorial Tournament, using strokes gained data in his live betting/putting regression model
By Chris Dell
@MaddJournalist
To view my free live betting model and "Strokes Gained Scores," calculated each round, click here
Primer/Intro: Using strokes gained statistics allows us to find strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament when we combine them with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Scores" putting regression formula, we are able to determine top buys and top fades for head-to-head matchup bets, DFS strategy and live betting opportunities from round to round as well. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others, but most weekends the primary focus will be on strokes gained off the tee strokes gained approach, strokes gained ball-striking and strokes gained tee-to-green.
The premise here is that strokes gained putting is wildly unpredictable and will vary from round to round, whereas strokes gained approach - as well as off the tee, ball-striking, and tee-to-green - are much "stickier" statistics which better indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment.
Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained score of +1.0 or higher (rounded up from 0.95 if needed), while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of -1.0 or lower (rounded down from -0.95 if needed). The goal for betting head-to-head matchups is to find two golfers whose SG SCORES combine to equal +1.0 or higher. For example, Golfer A's SG SCORE is +0.65 and Golfer B's SG SCORE is -0.50. Our SG MATCHUP SCORE then equals +1.10. I typically only bet these head-to-head matchups by using our "top fades" list and working down to all who have a -0.45 or SG SCORE or worse.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
CHRIS DELL'S ROUND 3 BONUS BETS
TOP-RATED SG MATCHUP SCORES
We went 8-4 overall on Round 2 head-to-head (H2H) matchup bets using our live betting model data from Round 1. Now we have two full sets of data to use from Round 2 AND Round 1 + Round 2 combined.
I'm on 28 (!!) head-to-head matchup bets total for Round 3, using "Strokes Gained Scores" and matchup scores from my live betting/putting regression model. To get my full daily card, visit our Betting Predators premium picks portal. Our PGA Premium package also includes recommended bet sizes for each wager, as well as live finish bets and outrights after each round. Here are my top three FREE bets for Saturday:
+2.07 Jaeger > Hatton @ DK +150
+1.98 Fox > Bradley @ Bet365 +115
+1.92 Fitzpatrick > Morikawa @ BO +100
RD3 Top Buys - Strokes Gained Scores (Round 2 Data Only)
Cantlay +2.63
Jaeger +2.46
Fox +1.63
Hoge +1.55
Ryder +1.51
Hossler +1.42
Fitzpatrick +1.38
Xander +1.30
Scheffler +1.25
Si Woo Kim +1.23
Hideki +1.24
Rodgers +1.10
Rahm +1.01
Woodland +0.95
RD3 Top Buys - Strokes Gained Scores (Round 1 Data + Round 2 Data)
Cantlay +1.67
Hodges +1.62
Hoge +1.45
Rahm +1.43
Ryder +1.39
Scheffler +1.38
Si Woo Kim +1.35
REDACTED +1.17
Hideki +1.11
Rodgers +1.09
RD3 Top Fades - Strokes Gained Scores (Round 2 Data Only)
Riley -1.42 (boy, that was fast)
English -1.34
Scott -1.23
Montgomery -1.14
For full access to all of my live betting picks for each round, check our PGA/Golf Premium Betting Package, which also includes all of our pre-tournament best bets and longshot picks for first round leader, outright winner and nationality/group props. You can save 50% by subscribing to our annual betting pass here.
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SG SCORE = Strokes Gained Score
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com