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U.S. Open - Round 2 Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Golf,Chris Dell

By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

UPDATE: Here's a quick primer with links to some of my previous articles on www.bettingpredators.com explaining our Strokes Gained Net Ratings (SGR) formula, as well as a public (free) Google spreadsheet link where you can track my picks each tournament, from Round 2 on. We were 21-8-5 at the TOUR Championship two weeks ago and are 80-34-12.5 for +46 units (!) over the last four tournaments - not including last week's Safeway Open, which I frankly didn't have enough time to properly track with the return of NFL and all of the weekly podcast and fantasy content we are putting out weekly here. So far, using SGR, we have just one losing round out of 16 total through the past four tournaments:

  • How To Bet With Strokes Gained: http://bit.ly/strokesgainedbetting101
  • Strokes Gained Best Bets Tracker: https://bit.ly/strokesgainedbets
  • Strokes Gained (U.S. Open) Net Ratings: http://bit.ly/strokesgainednetratings
  • DataGolf.com's Live Strokes Gained Statistics: https://datagolf.com/live-strokes-gained

Strokes Gained Top BUYS For Round 2

  1. Phil Mickelson +14.321
  2. Cameron Champ +13.189
  3. Michael Thompson +12.601
  4. Justin Harding +12.169
  5. Sami Valimaki +11.841
  6. Victor Hovland +10.953
  7. Eddie Pepperell +10.781
  8. Romain Langasque +10.709
  9. Keegan Bradley +10.205
  10. Shugo Imahira +10.037
  11. Henrik Stenson +10.021
  12. Rickie Fowler +9.153

Honorable Mention: Will Zalatoris (+8.973), Matthias Schwab (+8.697)

Strokes Gained Top FADES For Round 2

  1. Jason Kokrak -14.955
  2. Andy Ogletree -14.479
  3. Brandon Wu -14.311
  4. Rory Sabbatini -13.575
  5. Tiger Woods -11.423
  6. Mark Hubbard -9.855
  7. Lanto Griffin -9.483
  8. Ryo Ishikawa -9.471
  9. Charles Howell III -9.339
  10. Lucas Glover -9.271
  11. Curtis Luck (-8.699)
  12. Jason Day (-8.551)

Round 2 Head-to-Head Matchup Bets

*Note: These are matchups I was able to find and wager on via betonline.ag and betdsi.eu, but keep in mind I live in Florida and am unable to fully search through other sports books that might be available to you. That's why I stress to use the Strokes Gained Net Ratings (SGR) buys and fades list as a guide. Perhaps you find good odds on a 2nd round leader based off one of our buy candidates. Or you might see a matchup directly between a buy and fade that I didn't list below. Without further adieu, let's get to it y'all:

  • Morikawa > Woods
  • Thomas > Woods
  • Simpson > Day
  • Garcia > Day
  • Fowler > Wolff
  • Hovland > Wolff
  • Thompson > Hadley
  • Norris > Sabbatini
  • Lee > Griffin
  • Mickelson > Casey

Bonus Bets - U.S. Open Futures

​*Note: I would wager a quarter unit at most on these for now. But this is more to keep note of and observe as we progress through the weekend. The value with these outright bets between rounds only increases day by day, as we get closer to Round 4 on Sunday. So far, however, it's Fowler, Hovland and Zalatoris who are all popping in our models and sit within reasonable striking distance (6 strokes or less) of the lead. Odds are via betdsi.eu:

  • Rickie Fowler 40:1
  • Viktor Hovland 100:1
  • Will Zalatoris 125:1
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