By Chris Dell
UPDATE: We went 4-6 total on Friday using our Strokes Gained Net Ratings (SGR) for Round 2 at Winged Foot, cashing in our two #TigerFade bets easily while also winning with Viktor Hovland over Matthew Wolff and fading Jason Day in favor of Webb Simpson. On the other hand, we lost with buying Rickie Fowler and Michael Thompson, who both turned in poor performances. Fading Rory Sabbatini and Lanto Griffin were good calls as they shot +5 and +4, respectively, but the guys who they were matched up against (Shaun Norris +9 and Danny Lee +5) played even worse. That's just a little bad luck there, nothing I'm losing sleep about. We now have just two losing rounds out of 17 over the past 4+ tournaments and are still up +44.5 units over that time, our W/L record now "dropping" to 84-40-12.5 - I'll take it.
While -2 units isn't the best of days, we all know that every day and every round simply cannot all be winners. Instead, we will keep our nose to the grindstone and continue to trust the math. I believe our statistical edge only increases on Saturday and Sunday for Rounds 3/4 as we've lost a ton of golfers who missed the cut. We've narrowed down our field to stronger, more consistent guys who are less prone to unpredictable outcomes that don't fit our SGR model. I will include our summary below with links to our best bets tracker, SGR tracker, Strokes Gained primer and DataGolf.com's live strokes gained stats:
- How To Bet With Strokes Gained
- Strokes Gained Best Bets Tracker
- Strokes Gained Live Net Ratings
- DataGolf.com's Live Strokes Gained
Strokes Gained Top BUYS For Round 3
- Patrick Cantlay +12.508
- Abraham Ancer +8.892
- Hideki Matsuyama +8.760
- Rickie Fowler +7.808
- Thomas Pieters +6.348
- Tony Finau +6.120
Honorable Mention: Lanto Griffin (+5.460); Harris English (+5.028); Cameron Smith (+5.016)
Strokes Gained Top FADES For Round 3
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello -19.684
- Daniel Berger -17.248
- Bernd Wiesberger -17.044
- Zach Johnson -12.512
- Brian Harman -11.016
- Lucas Herbert -9.784
- Stephan Jaeger -8.132
- Patrick Reed -8.008
- Jason Day -7.056
Honorable Mention: Louis Oosthuizen (-6.160); Joaquin Niemann (-5.560); Alex Noren (-5.444)
Redacted: *Brendan Todd (-13.216); I've mentioned in previous articles why I back away from fading Todd, which is simply because his putting numbers tend to stay near the top of the field, day in and day out. As an elite putter who is less susceptible to our putting regression and overall SGR model, he is not a fade.
Round 3 Head-to-Head Matchup Bets
*Note: These are matchups I was able to find and wager on via betonline.ag and betdsi.eu, but keep in mind that I live in Florida and am unable to fully search through other sports books that might be available to you. That's why I stress to use the Strokes Gained Net Ratings (SGR) buys and fades list as a guide and don't just copy/paste the matchup bets that I made. I say this only because you may find better head to head options, as well as better odds, with different books. Perhaps you also find good odds on a 2nd round leader based off one of our strongest buy candidates. Or you might see a matchup directly between a buy and fade that I didn't list below at a specific U.S. or offshore book. Now let's get to it:
- *English > Cabrera-Bello
- Matsuyama > Watson
- Finau > Horschel
- Ancer > Lowry
- Fowler > Casey
- Smith > McIlroy
- Griffin > Wallace
- Pieters > Schauffele
- Zalatoris > Z. Johnson
- Thompson > Wiesberger
- Hadley > Herbert
- Westwood > Berger
- DeChambeau > Reed
- Bezuidenhout > Day
*Denotes a head-to-head matchup between a buy list candidate and a fade list candidate
Bonus Bets - U.S. Open Futures
Note: I would wager a quarter unit at most on these for now. But this is more to keep note of and observe as we progress through the weekend. The value with these outright bets between rounds only increases day by day, as we get closer to Round 4 on Sunday. So far, however, it's Fowler, Hovland and Zalatoris who are all popping in our models and sit within reasonable striking distance (6 strokes or less) of the lead. Odds are via betdsi.eu:
- Harris English (End of Round 3 Leader +900) - English sits only two strokes back of the lead despite positive numbers across the board from Round 2 in Strokes Gained Around The Green, Strokes Gained Approach and Strokes Gained Off The Tee. The three golfers ahead of him (Bello, Reed, Bryson) gained a combined 10+ strokes putting on Friday, while English had essentially just a neutral putting day. Other guys who might be worth fliers on here are Finau (+6600), Pieters (+4000) and Hideki (+2000). As I mentioned in yesterday's article, the real value on betting these outright futures will be going into Round 4 on Sunday.
- Harris English (Overall Winner +1400) - As you can tell I'm buying English here, simply because his numbers are strong coming off Round 2 and he is a proven commodity who has show he can hang tough amongst the best competition in the world. If he climbs higher towards the top of the leaderboard on Saturday, then his current +1400 number could be cut in half or more for Sunday's Round 4.