Lead golf betting analyst Chris Dell breaks down his STROKES GAINED SCORES ("SG SCORES") top-rated matchup bets for Round 4 of the U.S. Open - as well as golfers to back and bet against - using strokes gained data from his live betting/putting regression model. Read his FREE best bets, buys and fades column below. You can also access Chris' full daily betting card in our premium golf picks package.
By Chris Dell
@MaddJournalist
To view my free live betting model and "Strokes Gained Scores," calculated each round, click here
Primer/Intro: Using strokes gained statistics allows us to find strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament when we combine them with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Scores" putting regression formula, we are able to determine top buys and top fades for head-to-head matchup bets, DFS strategy and live betting opportunities from round to round as well. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others, but most weekends the primary focus will be on strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained ball-striking and tee-to-green.
The premise here is that strokes gained putting is wildly unpredictable and will vary from round to round, whereas strokes gained approach - as well as off the tee, ball-striking, and tee-to-green - are much "stickier" statistics which better indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment.
Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained score of +1.0 or higher (rounded up from 0.95 if needed), while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of -1.0 or lower (rounded down from -0.95 if needed). The goal for betting head-to-head matchups is to find two golfers whose SG SCORES combine to equal +1.0 or higher. For example, Golfer A's SG SCORE is +0.65 and Golfer B's SG SCORE is -0.50. Our SG MATCHUP SCORE then equals +1.10. I typically only bet these head-to-head matchups by using our "top fades" list and working down to all who have a -0.45 or SG SCORE or worse, and so on.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on the type of course and field strength, we will look to target certain stats to determine our head-to-head live matchup bets during each round (starting after round one):
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Rickie Fowler still holds a share of lead the 2023 U.S. Open after posting a -10 through three rounds at Los Angeles Country Club in California
CHRIS DELL'S ROUND 4 BONUS BETS
After hitting Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele for first round leader, I'm now adding 11 new head-to-head matchup best bets for Round 4 using "Strokes Gained Scores" and "strokes gained matchup scores" from my live betting/putting regression model. To get my full daily betting card, visit our Betting Predators premium picks portal. Our premium golf betting package also includes recommended bet sizes for each wager, as well as live finish bets and outright winner bets made after each and every round.
Here are my FREE, top-rated bets for Sunday:
- +3.64 Jordan Smith > Bennett @ DK -115
- +2.28 Carr > Puig @ Bet365 +130
- +2.12 Eckroat > Putnam @ Bet365 +120
- +2.11 Woodland > Rodgers @ Bet365 -110
RD4 Top Buys - Strokes Gained Scores
(Round 3 Data Only)
Bryson +1.79
Woodland +1.66
Henley +1.39
Fox +1.32
Hovland +1.19
Scheffler +1.15
Rory +1.06
RD4 Top Buys - Strokes Gained Scores
(Rounds 1-3 Data)
Hideki +1.59
Munoz +1.52
Scheffler +1.21
Henley +1.11
Eckroat +1.07
Rory +1.02
Fox +0.99
RD4 Top Fades - Strokes Gained Scores
(Round 3 Data Only)
Bennett -2.79
Puig Currius -1.92
Svensson -1.87
Sargent -1.85
Hughes -1.55
Reed -1.33
Ishikawa -1.16
Putnam -1.08
Xander -1.05
Gerard -1.02
RD4 Top Buys - Strokes Gained Scores
(Rounds 1-3 Data)
N/A
For full access to all of my live betting picks for each round, check our PGA/Golf Premium Betting Package, which also includes all of our pre-tournament best bets and longshot picks for first round leader, outright winner and nationality/group props. You can save 50% by subscribing to our annual betting pass here.
Bryson DeChambeau is tied for ninth place after three rounds at the U.S. open and leads one of our top buys lists for Round 4 on Sunday
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
SG SCORE = Strokes Gained Score
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes fantasy football rankings, player prop analysis, NFL Draft betting strategy, golf bets, DFS and much more, visit www.bettingpredators.com