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Valspar Championship: Chris Dell's Full Tournament Betting Card at Copperhead Course

· Chris Dell,Golf,PGA
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By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here

Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

  • Strokes Gained: Approach

  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green

  • Strokes Gained: Putting

  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.

If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:

Outright Winner (0.1 Units Unless Noted):

(0.2 Units) Hovland @ FD 11:1

(0.2 Units) DJ @ DK 18:1

—

(0.2) JT @ FD 10:1

(0.1) Fleetwood @ DK 55:1

(0.1) Wise @ DK 80:1

(0.05) Kizzire @ DK 130:1

(0.05) Laird @ DK 140:1

(0.05) Buckley @ DK 350:1

(0.05) Garnett @ FD 430:1

= 1 unit

First Round Leader (0.1 Units Unless Noted):

(0.2 Units) Hovland @ FD 26:1

(0.2 Units) DJ @ MB 33:1

—

(0.1) JT @ FD 26:1

(0.1) Fleetwood @ DK 60:1

(0.1) Wise @ DK 90:1

(0.1) Kizzire @ FD 95:1

(0.1) Laird @ DK 120:1

(0.05) Garnett @ MB 180:1

(0.05) Buckley @ DK 180:1

= 1 unit

Lowest Round Score (0.1 Units Unless Noted):

(0.2 Units) Hovland @ BR 14:1

(0.2 Units) DJ @ BR 18:1

—

(0.2) JT @ BR 14:1

(0.1) Fleetwood @ BR 40:1

(0.1) Wise @ BR 66:1

(0.05) Laird @ BR 80:1

(0.05) Kizzire @ BR 85:1

(0.05) Garnett @ BR 125:1

(0.05) Buckley @ DK 200:1

= 1 unit

TOURNAMENT FINISH PROPS (0.25 UNITS UNLESS NOTED):

(0.5 Units) Hovland T20 @ MB -130

(0.5 Units) DJ T20 @ DSI +125

—

JT T20 @ Bet365 -140

Fleetwood T40 @ Bet365 -120

Wise T40 @ DK +130

Kizzire T40 @ Bet365 +163

Laird T40 @ DK +170

Garnett T40 @ FD +290

Buckley T40 @ BR +400

Lowry > Oosthuizen/Hatton/Burns @ MB +350

JT/DJ/Hovland/Morikawa > The Field @ BO +236

“PGA Tour Expert Picks” (JT/DJ/Hovland/Morikawa/Woodland) > The Field @ BO +340

= 3.5 units

MAKE/MISS CUT PROPS (0.25 UNITS UNLESS NOTED):

(0.5 Units) Watson MISS Cut @ DSI +190

—

Streelman MISS Cut @ MB +120

Harman MISS Cut @ DSI +150

Tringale MISS Cut @ CZ +163

Koepka MISS Cut @ MB +250

Hatton MISS Cut @ DSI +260

Burns MISS Cut @ DSI +300

Xander MISS Cut @ DSI +320

Oosthuizen MISS Cut @ DSI +330

= 2.5 units

NATIONALITY/NOVELTY PROPS (0.25 UNITS UNLESS NOTED):

Bezuidenhout Top South African (vs. Grace/Oosthuizen) @ DK +250

Charl Schwartzel Top South African (vs. Grace/Oosthuizen) @ BO 10:1

Kaymer Top German (vs. Jaeger) @ Bet365 -163

Laird Top Scotsman (vs. Knox) @ Bet365 +110

Pereira Top South American (vs. Vegas/Grillo) @ Bet365 +163

= 1.25 units

TOURNAMENT MATCHUPS (0.25 Units Unless Noted):

(0.5 Units) DJ > Burns @ DK -120

(0.5 Units) DJ > Xander @ BR -120

(0.5 Units) Wise > Tringale @ FD -112

(0.5 Units) Kizzire > Streelman @ FD -126

(0.5 Units) Laird > Vegas @ BO -102

(0.5 Units) Fleetwood > Koepka @ DK -115

(0.5 Units) Fleetwood > Burns @ BO +110

—

DJ > Morikawa @ BO +100

Hovland > Morikawa @ BO -150

Fleetwood > Fitzpatrick @ BR +115

Fleetwood > Ancer @ BO +106

Wise > Varner @ BR -114

Wise > McCarthy @ DSI -130

JT > Morikawa @ FD -142

Kizzire > Griffin @ DSI -125

Laird > Svensson @ FD -126

—

Noren > Watson @ DK -110

Woodland > Watson @ BO -120

Wiesberger > Watson @ FD +112

—

Pan > Dahmen @ FD -112

Knox > Dahmen @ BR -150

N. Taylor > Dahmen @ BO -105

Bradley > Harman @ FD -134

Hadwin > Harman @ BR -114

Bezuidenhout > Tringale @ BR -137

Hughes > Tringale @ BO +112

Day > Koepka @ BR -103

Kokrak > Koepka @ DSI -135

Perez > Hoffman @ FD -142

Kuchar > Hoffman @ DSI -125

Fitzpatrick > Hatton @ DK +100

Lowry > Hatton @ BO -115

Ancer > Burns @ BO +106

Morikawa > Xander @ DK -120

McCarthy > Vegas @ FD -128

Redman > Stallings @ BO +100

—

Wise > Harman/Tringale @ CZ +175

Noren > Watson/Koepka @ DK +180

Morikawa > Oosthuizen/Xander @ DK +160

= 11.5 units

FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS (0.25 Units Unless Noted):

(0.5 Units) DJ > Watson @ DK -135

(0.5 Units) Fleetwood > Hatton @ DK +115

—

Hovland > Morikawa @ BO -120

DJ > Morikawa @ Bet365 +100

DJ > Ancer @ BO -138

Wise > Hughes @ DK -105

Wise > Noren @ BO -105

Fleetwood > Woodland @ Bet365 -110

Fleetwood > Knox @ BO -115

JT > Lowry @ BO -150

Garnett > Cink @ BO +100

Kizzire > Kuchar @ DK -120

Laird > Simpson @ BO +106

—

Duncan > Grace @ BO +106

Noren > Watson @ Bet365 -110

—

Hadwin > Harman @ DK -125

Wiesberger > Harman @ Bet365 -110

Varner > Harman @ BO -115

Bezuidenhout > Tringale @ Bet365 -110

McCarthy > Tringale @ BR -109

Ancer > Koepka @ Bet365 -110

Day > Koepka @ BO -105

Fitzpatrick > Oosthuizen @ Bet365 -110

Kokrak > Oosthuizen @ BO +120

Woodland > Burns @ BO +106

Lowry > Xander @ Bet365 -110

Long > Hatton @ BR +165

Hughes > Streelman @ BO +100

Ryder > Vegas @ BR +110

N. Taylor > Hoffman @ BR -122

Theegala > Grillo @ BO -120

—

Woodland > Burns/Xander @ DK +240

Higgs > Harman/Grillo @ FD +260

Kokrak > Oosthuizen/Koepka @ FD +220

Long > Hatton/Streb @ DK +230

McCarthy > NeSmith/Tringale @ DK +165

= 9.5 units

Full Betting Card Summary:

  • (5) Novelty/Nationality Props = 1.25 units
  • (9) Make/Miss Cut Props = 2.5 units
  • (12) Tournament Finish Props = 3.5 units
  • (9) Lowest Round Score Props = 1 unit
  • (9) Outright Winner Props = 1 unit
  • (9) First Round Finish Props = 1 unit
  • (36) First Round 18-Hole Matchups/3-Balls = 9.5 units
  • (39) Tournament 72-Hole Matchups/3-Balls = 11.5 units
  • Total = 31.25 Units

Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations

*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"

Strokes Gained Putting

Strokes Gained Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Tee To Green

Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green

SGR = Strokes Gained Rating

BS = Ball Striking

OTT = Off The Tee

APP = Approach

PUTT = Putting

ARG = Around The Green

T2G = Tee To Green

FRL = First Round Leader

SRL = Second Round Leader

TRL = Third Round Leader

DK = DraftKings

FD = FanDuel

CZ = Caesars

BR = BetRivers

BO = BetOnline

DSI = BetDSI

MB = MyBookie

Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com

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