Smoove's NFL Week 2 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins TNF

• Opening Line: Dolphins -2.5 / Total: 50
• Current Line: Dolphins -2.5 / Total: 48.5
• Smoove Line: Bills -1.82 / Total: 46.62

Buffalo held the Cardinals to 0 offensive touchdowns in the 2nd half, and Miami held the Jaguars to under 20 points. Since 2021, the Bills are 15-10 (60%) to the under on the road, and the Dolphins are 17-10 (63%) to the under at home since 2021. Last year, in 3 matchups, the average total was 48.16, and my model made this total 46.62. This total opened at 50, and currently, 33% of tickets and 50% of money are coming in on the under, moving this total down to 49 and 48.5 at some shops.

Best Bet: Bills/Dolphins under 49

Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens

• Opening Line: Ravens -9.5 / Total: 41.5
• Current Line: Ravens -9 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Ravens -4.65 / Total: 44.19

Last year, Gardner Minshew faced this Ravens defense while starting for the Colts, and he went 27/44 227 yards and 1 touchdown and won the game outright 22-19. Week 2 is filled with overreaction from Week 1, and the Raiders didn’t look great against the Chargers as they had 5.0 YPP and only 10 points but expect a better effort from their offense as this Ravens defense is playing in a new system, and they allowed 7.1 YPP to the Chiefs. This line opened at Ravens -9.5 while 84% of the tickets and 91% of the money are coming on in Baltimore, but there’s been some reverse line movement as this line is down to 9, and some 8.5/8 are starting to show up at some shops. My model made this line Ravens -4.65, indicating a more competitive game than the oddsmakers, and since 2021, the Raiders are 16-13-1 ATS as underdogs.

Best Bet: Raiders +9

Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers

• Opening Line: Chargers -5.5 / Total: 39.5
• Current Line: Chargers -6 / Total: 39
• Smoove Line: Chargers -0.47 / Total: 43.99

After going 2-15 last season and opening this season up losing by 37 points to a team that didn’t make the playoffs, not many bettors are interested in backing Carolina but have value in this spot. Since 2007 teams that lost by more than 14 points on the point spread in a divisional game are 16-9 SU and 15-9-1 ATS in Week 2. This line opened at Chargers -5.5, and they’re currently getting 89% of tickets and 85% of money with the line moving to 6, so it will be a contrarian spot to back the Panthers.

Lean: Panthers +6

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys

• Opening Line: Cowboys -6.5 / Total: 45
• Current Line: Cowboys -6 / Total: 47
• Smoove Line: Cowboys -4.87 / Total: 45.47

Both teams opened the season with impressive showings as the Saints beat a division opponent by 37 points, and the Cowboys went on the road and beat a playoff team from last year by 16 points. This line opened at Cowboys -6.5, and they’re currently getting 72% of tickets and 82% of the money, but the line has dropped to -6, indicating reverse line movement towards the Saints. My model made this line Cowboys -4.87, so there’s value in backing New Orleans, but since 2021, Dallas is 28-13 ATS as a favorite and 16-9 ATS as a home favorite.

Lean: Saints +6

Tampa Bay Bucs @ Detroit Lions

• Opening Line: Bucs -6.5 / Total: 48.5
• Current Line: Bucs -7.5 / Total: 51
• Smoove Line: Bucs -3.46 / Total: 43.44

This is a rematch of last season's playoff matchup, and the Lions were fortunate to cover as 6.5-point favorites even though Tampa Bay gained more yards and had a better YPP. Baker Mayfield looks more comfortable in his 2nd year with the Bucs as he opened the season 24-30 with 289 yards and 4 TDs vs the Commanders. This line opened Lions -6.5, and they’re currently getting 36% of the tickets and 59% of the money. This line has moved to -7.5, but my model made this line Lions -3.46. Since 2021, it’s been tough to fade Detroit as they’re 15-7 ATS as a favorite, and they found a way to win and cover overtime in Week 1 vs. another playoff rematch against the Rams.

Lean: Bucs +7.5

Indianapolis Colts @ Green Bay Packers

• Opening Line: Colts -3.5 / Total: 41
• Current Line: Colts -3 / Total: 40.5
• Smoove Line: Colts -1.06 / Total: 41.98

This line before Jordan Love's injury was Packers -5. After the injury, oddsmakers adjusted, making Colts -3.5, indicating Love is worth 8.5 points to the line, which would make him the best quarterback in the league, and I have a big disagreement with that adjustment. My adjustment from Jordan Love to Malik Willis is 4.5 points, so Green Bay is in a value spot at home with one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL. Currently, 79% of the tickets and 82% of the money are coming in on the Colts, but the line has moved to -3, indicating reverse line movement to the Packers. My model made this line 1.06, so back the Packers at home.

Best Bet: Packers +3

Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars

• Opening Line: Jags -3.5 / Total: 41.5
• Current Line: Jags -3 / Total: 41.5
• Smoove Line: Jags -1.64 / Total: 42.60

Both teams are coming off disappointing losses in Week 1, but Jacksonville may feel like they should’ve won as they had a great opportunity to go up 24-7 in their game vs. the Dolphins, but that quickly turned into 17-13, and they ended up losing 20-17. The Browns fit a profitable system that dates back 12 seasons for teams that lost by double digits in Week 1 and bounced back in Week 2, going 47-28-3 ATS (62.7%). This line opened Jaguars-3.5, and they’re currently getting 70% of the tickets but just 65% of the money. This line has moved down to -3, indicating sharp reverse line movement to the Browns, and my model made this line 1.64.

Like: Browns +3

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

• Opening Line: 49ers -5.5 / Total: 46.5
• Current Line: 49ers -5.5 / Total: 45.5
• Smoove Line: 49ers -6.77 / Total: 44.27

Both teams are coming off impressive wins in Week 1, and the 49ers could be up for revenge as the Vikings beat them last year on Monday Night Football as 6.5-point underdogs. This line opened 49ers -5.5, and they’re getting 83% of the tickets but just 63% of the money, and there’s been no movement in the line. My model made this line 49ers -6.77, so even though the public is making this a lopsided play to back the 49ers, there’s still slight value in going with the public as the 49ers are 28-24 ATS since 2021 as a favorite.

Like: 49ers -5.5

Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots

• Opening Line: Seahawks -3.5 / Total: 38
• Current Line: Seahawks -3.5 / Total: 38.5
• Smoove Line: Patriots -4.11 / Total: 44.57

The Patriots pulled off the biggest upset of Week 1 after being the favorite to have the worst record. It starts with their defense, which held the Bengals to just 224 total yards, 4.7 YPP, and 10 points. This line opened Seahawks -3.5, and they’re getting 59% of the tickets and 81% of the money, but there’s been no movement. My model has the Seahawks overrated as Pats -4.11, so I’m calling for New England to pull off another upset.

Like: Patriots +3.5

New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans

• Opening Line: Jets -4 / Total: 43.5
• Current Line: Jets -3.5 / Total: 41
• Smoove Line: Jets -0.26 / Total: 41.82

Tennessee had a 17-0 lead and lost the game 24-17 without giving up an offensive touchdown. Will Levis also gave the Bears the gift of an interception, so expect the Titans to play with added motivation to get a win and expect the coaching staff to preach to Levis all week about how important it is to take care of the football. The Jets are coming off as being embarrassed Monday Night by the 49ers. Still, it can take them a few weeks to develop some continuity as they’ve played together and are working on a new offensive line to protect Aaron Rodgers. This line opened Jets -4, and New York is taking in 78% of tickets but just 70% of the money, and the line has moved to -3.5, signaling reverse line movement to the Titans. My model made this line 0.26, so there’s value in backing the home underdog.

Best Bet: Titans +3.5

New York Giants @ Washington Commanders

• Opening Line: Commanders -2.5 / Total: 42
• Current Line: Commanders -1.5 / Total: 43
• Smoove Line: Commanders -3.24 / Total: 42.08

Neither of these teams had impressive outings in Week 1, as the Giants were blown out by the Vikings, and the Commanders were blown out by the Bucs. Since 2021 the Giants are 15-12 (55.6%) to the under as a road team, and the Commanders are 16-9 (64%) to the under as a home team. This total opened at 42, and 37% of the tickets and 70% of the money are coming in on the over, moving this total to 43, so there’s value in taking the under as my model made this total 42.08.

Like: Giants/Commanders under 43

Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals

• Opening Line: Rams -2.5 / Total: 48.5
• Current Line: Cardinals -1 / Total: 48.5
• Smoove Line: Cardinals-0.40 / Total: 45.64

It’s Week 1, and the Rams are already dealing with a cluster of injuries to their offensive line, as well as Puka Nacua going on the IR and missing a minimum of 4 games, so that’s what has caused the Cardinals to go from a short dog to a short favorite. This line opened Rams -2.5, and they’re getting 69% of the tickets but just 43% of the money. It’ll be too much for the Rams to overcome a cluster of injuries to their offensive line and missing a key offensive weapon to go on the road and face a divisional opponent.

Lean: Cardinals ML -118

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs

• Opening Line: Chiefs -6 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Chiefs -5.5 / Total: 47.5
• Smoove Line: Chiefs -4.03 / Total: 46.07

Since Joe Burrow entered the league in 2020, he’s faced the Chiefs 5 times and owns a 3-2 SU and ATS record against Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have been favored in 4 of those 5 games, so expect a bounce-back performance from the Bengals, especially from their offense, as they’re 11-7-1 ATS since 2021, coming off a SU ATS loss. This line opened Chiefs -6, and they’re currently getting 80% of the tickets, but just 71% of the money, and the line has moved to 5.5/5, indicating reverse line movement to the Bengals. My model made this line 4.03, so there’s value in backing the road dog.

Best Bet: Bengals +5.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos

• Opening Line: Steelers -2.5 / Total: 37
• Current Line: Steelers -2.5 / Total: 36.5
• Smoove Line: Broncos -0.11 / Total: 38.39

The Steelers went on the road as 4.5-point dogs and won the game outright even though they didn’t score an offensive touchdown, had 4.1 YPP, and Justin Fields had a QBR of just 42.6, so that final score was misleading. This line opened Steelers -2.5, and they’re currently getting 72% of the tickets but just 57% of the money with no line movement. The Broncos are getting 18% of the money line tickets and 29% of the money line money, moving the opening line from +124 to +120, so respected money is backing the Broncos to win outright, and my model made this line 0.11, so I’ll give the edge to the home dog.

Best Bet: Broncos +2.5

Chicago Bears @ Houston Texans SNF

• Opening Line: Texans -6.5 / Total: 45.5
• Current Line: Texans -6 / Total: 45.5
• Smoove Line: Texans -2.91 / Total: 46.77

Chicago was fortunate to get a win in Week 1 as they were down 17-0 and didn’t score an offensive touchdown. Houston was fortunate to get a win in a shootout against a divisional opponent, but this is too big of a number for a young team like Houston to lay with an inconsistent defense. This line opened Texans -6.5, and they’re getting 80% of the tickets and 82% of the money, but the line has moved to -6, indicating reverse line movement towards the Bears, and my model made this line Texans -2.91, so there’s value in backing the prime time underdog.

Like: Bears +6

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles MNF

• Opening Line: Eagles -6.5 / Total: 48
• Current Line: Eagles -6.5 / Total: 47
• Smoove Line: Eagles -4.24 / Total: 48.26

Philadelphia’s offense had an impressive showing in Week 1 in Brazil, led by Saquon Barkley's 109 yards and 4 total TDs. He opened the season with +2200 odds to win offensive player of the year, and after his performance, he moved to 2nd best odds at +700. Kirk Cousins did not have a good debut with his new team, and there are concerns about him not being healthy. This line opened Eagles -6.5, and they’re getting 86% of the tickets and 91% of the money, but there’s been no movement in the line. My model made this line Eagles -4.24, but I would need to see some improvement in Cousins’ mobility before backing the Falcons.

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