Week 2 NFL Betting Market Report & Actionable Insights w/ Mackenzie Rivers

NFL Opening Line Report: How the Market Has Moved After Week 1

Each week, in this article, we will assess how the betting market has adjusted its expectations for the upcoming week’s games after digesting the latest batch of data from Thursday’s and Sunday’s finals. By comparing the lookahead lines with the current odds, we’ll break down how each team's performance and key injuries might have influenced the market's perception and the NFL betting landscape.

Please note: Lines are from the home team's perspective and rounded to the nearest half-point, except for when the line is near 3.

Thursday

BUF @ MIA (8:15 ET / Amazon)

• Final Look Ahead Line (Saturday night): MIA -2.5
• World Opener (Sunday afternoon): MIA -1.5
• Current (Monday 7 AM ET): MIA -1.5

Both teams won their Week 1 games, and each failed to cover by half a point. Regardless, the market liked what it saw from Josh Allen and the Bills much more than what it saw from Tua & Co. With their new MVP-favorite QB, the Bills reiterated their commitment to the ground-and-pound style that was established during their 6-1 finish to the regular season under offensive coordinator Joe Brady. Buffalo shook off a sluggish start to dominate the second half vs. Arizona. The Dolphins also pulled off a second-half comeback win, but their offense lacked the McDaniel-dynamism that took the league by storm in each of the past two Septembers.

Verdict: Bills upgraded a ½ point, Dolphins downgraded a ½ point

Sunday

LVR @ BAL (1PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: BAL -8
• World Opener: BAL -8.5
• Current: BAL -9

Despite struggles in their offensive line and defense, the Ravens can take positives from their narrow loss to the defending champion Chiefs this past Thursday. On the other hand, the Raiders' quarterback looked pedestrian throughout, and head coach Antonio Pierce made critical conservative decisions, including punting from midfield with one yard to go against the Chargers, indicating either he is over his skis as a head coach or has no faith at all in his offense. Either way, it's not good for Raider Nation. Both teams lost and failed to cover, but the market upgraded the Ravens a full point following their more respectable performance.

Verdict: Ravens upgraded ½ point, Raiders downgraded ½ point

LAC @ CAR (1PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: LAC -3.5
• World Opener: LAC -4.5
• Current: LAC -5

Under new head coach Dave Canales, the Panthers' offense looked atrocious on both sides of the ball in Week 1, squashing any optimism about an offensive turnaround. Meanwhile, the Chargers looked strong under Greg Roman’s direction, beating the Raiders in the trenches through their 2-score win in what was basically a Raiders home game.

Verdict: Panthers downgraded 1.5 points.

NOR @ DAL (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: DAL -6
• World Opener: DAL -6.5
• Current: DAL -6.5

Both teams had dominant Week 1 performances, but the market ticked slightly in favor of the Cowboys. The question remains: Is this line adjustment a sober assessment of their performance, or is it simply America’s Team benefiting from an ever-present hype train in Big D?

Verdict: Cowboys upgraded a ½ point.

TB @ DET (1PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: DET -6.5
• World Opener: DET -6.5
• Current: DET -6.5

The Buccaneers covered easily, while the Lions needed a fourth-quarter comeback to force overtime against the Rams despite entering as 5.5-point favorites. However, the market yawned, ignoring both results and reasserting its relative position on these two teams, keeping the line unchanged.

Verdict: No change

IND @ GB (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead (Friday): GB -4.5
• World Opener: GB +3
• Current: GB +3 (EV)

Malik Willis stepping in for an injured Jordan Love has swung the line significantly against the Packers, with the market moving 7.5 points lower from the lookahead line. Perhaps this is the best indication that Love, despite his inexperience, might be worth his $55M per year contract. Or maybe it’s more of an indication that despite their late-summer move to improve their backup QB spot, the Packers still have the worst QB depth in the NFL.

Verdict: Packers downgraded 7.5 points.

CLE @ JAX (1 PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: JAX -2
• World Opener: JAX -2.5
• Current: JAX -3

The Browns have been massively downgraded. The Browns were seen as roughly equal to Jacksonville in the lookahead market. Still, after Deshaun Watson posted the worst QB numbers of any starter in Week 1 (9.0 QBR), the market now clearly views the Browns as worse than Jacksonville. Jacksonville, despite losing, had one of the more impressive losses of the weekend. How impressive was it? Good question—it would be easy to point to Travis Etienne's end-zone fumble against Miami and argue that Jacksonville easily could have won. While that's true, the box score numbers don’t favor Jacksonville. Miami outgained Jacksonville by 130 yards and bested them by almost a yard per play. Still, this market movement is less about Jacksonville’s loss and more about Deshaun Watson’s continued poor play. His performance has deteriorated so drastically that it’s hard to remember when the pre-trade, pre-trial Watson looked like an MVP candidate back in 2020.

Verdict: Browns downgraded 2 points

SEA @ NE (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: NE +3 (-120)
• World Opener: NE +4
• Current: NE +3 (EV)

The Seahawks opened as significantly bigger favorites vs. New England in Week 2 despite the Patriots’ upset win in Week 1. Since re-opening, however, some overnight money has poured in on New England, as bettors weigh how much New England’s strong Week 1 performance had to do with New England vs. how much it had to do with the Bengals’ perennial early-season struggles. Zac Taylor is now 1-5 in Week 1 as a head coach, and for his part, Joe Burrow is now 1-4 in Week 1 vs. 33-20 in all other games, including 5-2 in the playoffs.

Verdict: Seahawks upgraded a ½-point — no change for New England

NYJ @ TEN (1PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: TEN -4
• World Opener: TEN -4
• Current: TEN -4

Titans offense wasn't good and eventually cost the game in Week 1. At the same time, the Titans' defense played better than expected, holding the Bears in check throughout. On balance, the market sees no adjustment necessary.

Verdict: No adjustment.

NYG @ WAS (1PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: WAS -2.5
• World Opener: WAS -3
• Current: WAS -3 (EV)

As rough as the Commanders' start to the season was at times in their 17-point loss at Tampa, the market has made a definitive statement: The NY Giants' performance was much more disappointing. On balance, the market has upgraded the Commanders to be clearly better than the Giants, making them near 3-point favorites despite typical home-field advantage now being around 2 points and the Commanders historically having a sub-typical home-field advantage. No longer are the Giants only in the discussion for being the worst team in the NFC East — the market is saying they are clearly that. The question now becomes: Are the Giants arguably the worst team in the NFL, bar none?

Verdict: Giants downgraded 1.5 points.

LAR @ ARI (4:05 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: ARI -2.5
• World Opener: ARI -2.5
• Current: ARI -2.5

Both of these teams impressed despite losing close games in Week 1. While the Cardinals cashed for their bettors by the hook, Rams backers experienced the hair-pulling reality of backing an NFL underdog that goes to overtime. The lack of movement in this line illustrates that while bettors live and die with each cover or non-cover, the betting market is really only concerned with assessing overall performance when predicting future games.

Verdict: No adjustment

PIT @ DEN (4:25 PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: DEN +2.5
• World Opener: DEN +3
• Current: DEN +3 (-120)

Russell Wilson's status for Week 2 remains uncertain after being a late scratch from Week 1 with a lingering calf injury. But as long as T.J. Watt and the Steelers' defense are intact, the market seems unconcerned. On balance, the market has upgraded the Steelers in this match-up by about a point, moving from 2.5 to 3, with some extra juice leaning toward the home dog. Denver was once an incredible bet at home in September, with the theory being that their mile-high altitude exposed opposing teams' lack of game shape early in the year. From 1989 to 2017, the Broncos were an incredible 47-9 SU and 30-23-2 ATS at home in September. However, this advantage has dissipated in recent years, with Denver going only 5-6 SU and an even worse 2-6-3 ATS at home in September since 2018.

Verdict: Broncos downgraded a ½ point, Steelers upgraded a ½ point

CHI @ HOU (8:20 PM ET / NBC)

• Final Look Ahead Line: HOU -4
• World Opener: HOU -6.5
• Current: HOU -6.5

Is it possible to look worse in a win and cover than the Bears did in Week 1 vs. the Titans? That’s like asking if it’s possible to come back from 2 touchdowns down, win, and cover while not scoring an offensive touchdown and putting up a Week 1-worst 2.8 yards per play. Sure, it’s possible, but wtf?

Verdict: Texans upgraded a ½ point (despite failing to cover), Bears downgraded 2-points (despite win & cover vs. TEN).

Monday: ATL @ PHI (8:15 PM ET / ESPN)

• Final Look Ahead Line: PHI -4.5
• World Opener: PHI -6
• Current: PHI -6.5

It's a major downgrade for the Falcons, with questions arising about whether Kirk Cousins lost his fastball after 10 months off, returning from his Achilles tear. The Eagles largely met expectations in their win vs. Green Bay, and the Falcons defense did the same, holding the Steelers slightly below their Vegas team total. This entire move seems to be based on how pedestrian the Falcons offense looked, with Cousins especially appearing a step slow, both in his movement and reaction time against Pittsburgh.

Verdict: Falcons downgraded 2-points

Final Look Ahead Line: KC -3.5

• World Opener: KC -4.5; Current: KC -5.5

The market didn't move this number much after the Chiefs won and covered in Week 1. But after the Bengals lost at home to the Patriots with their offense performing as poorly as it ever has with a healthy Joe Burrow, the market is very much concerned that this is not just a Week 1 problem for Zac Taylor and his crew.

Verdict: Bengals downgraded 1.5 points, Chiefs upgraded a ½ point

Final Look Ahead Line: MIN +6.5

• World Opener: MIN +5.5; Current: MIN +5.5

The Vikings saw a one-point upgrade after a dominant defensive display and efficient offense in their Week 1 performance. Sam Darnold will have a chance to prove he can remain efficient against his former team – while Brian Flores will know he has a much steeper challenge in Week 2 than he did vs. a Giants team that has averaged only 10 PPG over Daniel Jones' last 8 starts.

Verdict: Vikings upgraded 1-point. *SF MNF game-pending

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