Smoove's NFL Week 3 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

Los Angeles Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

• Opening Line: Steelers -1.5 / Total: 36
• Current Line: Steelers -1.5 / Total: 35.5
• Smoove Line: Steelers -1.08 / Total: 33.60

Both of these teams started 2-0 SU and ATS have benefitted from easy schedules, and they have some of the best defenses as the Chargers rank 3rd in Yards Per Play and the Steelers rank 11th in Yards Per Play, so it will be difficult for both offenses to move the ball and score points. This total opened at 36, and currently 63% of the ticket count and 92% of the handle is coming in on the under, dropping this total to 35.5. Even though this is a low number, my model made this total 33.60, and since 2022, the Steelers are 10-7 (58.8%) to the under as a home team, and the Chargers are 12-6-1 (66.7%) to the under on the road.

Like: Chargers/Steelers under 35.5

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts

• Opening Line: Colts -1 / Total: 45.5
• Current Line: Colts -1 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Colts -0.75 / Total: 45.15

Both teams look to rebound after embarrassing losses, but I give the Colts a slight edge because they are at home. Caleb Williams took a beating Sunday night, getting sacked seven times, and it seems he still needs more games to adjust to the NFL game as he has a 24.2 QBR, which ranks 2nd worst, only above Bryce Young, who was just benched two games into the season. This line opened Colts -1, and with them getting 61% of the tickets and 59% of the handle, there’s been a line freeze. My model made this line Colts -0.75, so a safer play would be picking the Colts on the ML to just win the game.

Best Bet: Colts ML -125

Houston Texans @ Minnesota Vikings

• Opening Line: Texans -3 / Total: 46.5
• Current Line: Texans -2.5 / Total: 46
• Smoove Line: Vikings -5.29 / Total: 43.19

Many people thought the Vikings season was over when first-round draft pick JJ McCarthy was lost for the season, but Sam Darnold has stepped in his spot and has reminded people why he was drafted 4th overall. Darnold is averaging 9.2 Yards/Attempt, which ranks 2nd among QBs, and he’s completing over 70% of his passes, so he’s being aggressive and accurate, pushing the ball downfield to his weapons, led by Justin Jefferson. Defensively, Brian Flores shouldn’t have to make many adjustments as the Texans offense is very similar to the 49ers offense, which he’s been able to keep in check two years in a row. The market is backing Houston, with them receiving 60% of the tickets and 53% of the money, but the line has moved from -3 to -2.5, and my model says the wrong team is favored in this matchup and has the Vikings -5.29.

Best Bet: Vikings +2.5

New York Giants @ Cleveland Browns

• Opening Line: Browns -7 / Total: 39
• Current Line: Browns -6 / Total: 38.5
• Smoove Line: Browns -6.42 / Total: 37.98

Both teams have shown inconsistent and sloppy play, but the Giants fit a couple of systems that date back more than 10 years for Week 3. Teams that are 0-2 SU are 35-15-1 ATS against teams that are 1-1 SU in Week 3 since 2010. Also, winless teams are 36-20 ATS in Week 3 when playing as an underdog of 3.5 points or more since 2010. This line opened at Browns -7, and they’re currently getting 68% of the tickets and 57% of the handle, but the line has dropped to 6.5, indicating reverse line movement to New York. My model made this line 6.42, so it’s crucial to get 6.5 if you’re backing the Giants.

Best Bet: Giants +6.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints

• Opening Line: Eagles -2.5 / Total: 48.5
• Current Line: Saints -2.5 / Total: 49.5
• Smoove Line: Saints -6.46 / Total: 47.78

The Saints have been one of the biggest surprises through 2-0 games, coming off a blowout win over the Cowboys in Dallas, and the Eagles are coming off a devastating loss on Monday Night Football. I would expect a better effort from the Eagles' defense as they gave up the game-winning touchdown drive. This total opened at 48.5, and 78% of the tickets and 76% of the money are coming in on the over, moving this total to 49.5. Still, my model made this total 47.78, so there’s value in playing the under as the Eagles are 12-6 (66.7%) to the under on the road since 2022, and the Saints are 10-7 (58.8%) to the under at home during the same span.

Like: Eagles/Saints under 49.5

Denver Broncos @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Opening Line: Bucs -7 / Total: 41
• Current Line: Bucs -6.5 / Total: 39.5
• Smoove Line: Bucs -5.89 / Total: 37.41

The Denver Broncos and Bo Nix opened their season up in some tough situations with a rookie quarterback starting on the road in a hostile environment like Seattle has historically been and then having your home opener against the Steelers, who have one of the best defenses in the league. Still, now they’re in a favorable spot as they take on the Tampa Bay Bucs, coming off a big upset win on the road, and can be in a letdown spot of their own. Also, the Broncos fit a system of being a winless team and an underdog of 3.5 points or more, and they have been 36-20 ATS since 2010. This line opened at Bucs -7, and they’re being backed by the public getting 83% of the tickets but just 63% of the money, and the line has dropped to -6.5 towards Denver, indicating sharp reverse line movement. My model made this line Bucs -5.89, so there’s value in grabbing the points with Denver as they look to avoid going 0-3.

Best Bet: Broncos +6.5

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans

• Opening Line: Titans -1 / Total: 39.5
• Current Line: Titans -3 / Total: 36.5
• Smoove Line: Titans -3.39 / Total: 37.69

Green Bay was able to pull off the win with Malik Willis stepping in for Jordan Love last week, but he’ll need to play a more significant role as they go on the road to one of the most difficult places in Tennessee. The Titans could easily be 2-0, but they’re 0-2, and the blame could be placed at the feet of Will Levis and his boneheaded turnovers. Playing the under the total at 39.5 was a strong play as my model made this total 37.69 but now the total has dropped 3 points to 36.5 I would recommend a slight play to the over.

Lean: Packers/Titans over 36.5

Carolina Panthers @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Opening Line: Raiders -6.5 / Total: 39.5
• Current Line: Raiders -5.5 / Total: 41
• Smoove Line: Raiders -6.62 / Total: 45.48

It is a rare instance where a team benches their starting quarterback, and the line moves in their favor, but that is the state of this Panthers team as Bryce Young just wasn’t an NFL quarterback as he has more interceptions than touchdowns in his career and is only averaging 5.4 Yards/Attempt. This line opened at 6.5, with the Raiders being backed by the public as they’re getting 84% of the tickets and 76% of the handle. Still, this line has dropped to 5.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement, but my model has the Raiders favored by 6.62. So this weekend, the Raiders could show that Bryce Young was not the only problem in Carolina.

Like: Raiders -5.5

Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks

• Opening Line: Seahawks-6 / Total: 44
• Current Line: Seahawks -4.5 / Total: 41
• Smoove Line: Seahawks -9.23 / Total: 40.19

The look-ahead line for this game was Dolphins -1 before Tua Tagovailoa was injured in their last game and later ruled out to the IR. This line reopened at Seattle -6, indicating that Miami going from Tua to his backup is worth a 7-point move, which I felt was too much of an overreaction. Still, now the line is down to Seattle -4.5, which would indicate a 5.5-point adjustment. Thompson has made two starts in his career, and he’ll be walking into a hostile environment on the road in Seattle, but he’ll have a historical trend working in his favor. Since 2021, backup QBs making their first start and playing the underdog role are 38-30-2 ATS (55%), so expect Miami to rally around Skylar Thompson as they’ve had extra time to prepare since they haven’t played since last Thursday.

Lean: Seahawks -4.5

Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals

• Opening Line: Lions -3.5 / Total: 51.5
• Current Line: Lions -3 / Total: 51.5
• Smoove Line: Cards -1.03 / Total: 48.05

Arizona has been one of the surprise teams through the first couple of weeks, as they’re coming off a 30-point win against a division opponent. The Lions will look to bounce back coming off a SU ATS loss, and since 2022, Detroit is 9-4 ATS with a 6.5 average margin of victory when they’re coming off a loss. This total is the highest on the board at 51.5 and hasn’t moved off that number, but over the last two seasons, totals of 50 or more are 13-2 to the under, and over the previous three seasons, they’re 30-11 to the under. My model made this total of 48.05.

Lean: Lions/Cardinals under 51.5

Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys

• Opening Line: Cowboys -1 / Total: 48.5
• Current Line: Ravens -1 / Total: 48.5
• Smoove Line: Cowboys -3.03 / Total: 45.91

With the Cowboys coming off a blowout loss in their home opener last week and the Ravens blowing another double-digit lead in the 4th quarter, this will be the game of the week as the Ravens look to avoid going 0-3. Baltimore also fits the system for Week 3 in the NFL for 0-2 teams facing teams that are 1-1 in Week 3 are 35-15-1 ATS (70%) since 2010. The Ravens have also gone from a minor road dog to a slight road favorite, but my model likes the Cowboys and made them a 3.03 favorite.

Lean: Cowboys +1

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

• Opening Line: 49ers -6.5 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: 49ers -7 / Total: 44.5
• Smoove Line: 49ers -5.64 / Total: 45.52

The Rams will also be looking to keep their season alive as they try to avoid going 0-3, but they’re dealing with a cluster of injuries to their offensive line, skill position players, and key players on the defensive side of the ball. The 49ers are also dealing with injuries, as they’ll be without Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. In the last 20 years, teams that lose by 30+ points and are underdogs of 4 or more points in their next game are 88-50-3 ATS (64%), so the Rams will have this system working in their favor as they fight to avoid going 0-3. My model made this line 5.64, so there’s value in grabbing the points and playing the contrarian spot with the Rams.

Best Bet: Rams +7

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons

• Opening Line: Chiefs -4.5 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Chiefs -3.5 / Total: 46.5
• Smoove Line: Chiefs -0.50 / Total: 43.86

The Chiefs are fortunate to be 2-0 as they’ve played some close games with the Ravens and Bengals, and the Falcons are coming off a controversial comeback on Monday Night. This line opened Chiefs -4.5, and the public is all over them as they’re getting 76% of the tickets and 79% of the money. Still, this line has dropped to -3.5, indicating sharp reverse line movement towards the Falcons, and my model made this line 0.50, so there’s value in backing Kirk Cousins in another prime-time spot.

Lean: Falcons +3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills

• Opening Line: Bills -4.5 / Total: 47
• Current Line: Bills -5 / Total: 45.5
• Smoove Line: Bills -7.09 / Total: 43.51

Josh Allen is just 3-5 ATS in his career on Monday Night Football and has lost 4 of his last 5 starts ATS on Monday Night Football. However, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have lost 7 straight games dating back to last season. My model is in favor of the Bills -7.09 even though they’re getting 76% of the money but just 70% of the handle, making them a public play in a prime-time spot.

Lean: Bills -5

Washington Commanders @ Cincinnati Bengals

• Opening Line: Bengals -7 / Total: 47.5
• Current Line: Bengals -7.5 / Total: 48
• Smoove Line: Bengals -4.39 / Total: 45.19

Last week, the Bengals closed as a 6.5-point underdog, and this week, they’re a 7.5-point favorite, and that’s because they went from playing the best team in the league (Chiefs) to the worst team in the league (Commanders) on their home field as they look to avoid an 0-3 start as well. The Bengals also fit the winless team system that faces a 1-1 team in Week 3. They’re 35-15-1 ATS (70%), so expect the Bengals to get their first win of the season.

Lean: Bengals -7.5

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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