Week 3 NFL Betting Market Report & Actionable Insights w/ Mackenzie Rivers

NFL Opening Line Report: How the Market Has Moved After Week 2

Each week, in this article, we will assess how the betting market has adjusted its expectations for the upcoming week’s games after digesting the latest batch of data from Thursday’s and Sunday’s finals. By comparing the lookahead lines with the current odds, we’ll break down how each team's performance and key injuries might have influenced the market's perception and the NFL betting landscape.

Please note: Lines are from the home team's perspective and rounded to the nearest half-point, except for when the line is near 3.

Thursday

NE @ NYJ (8:15 ET / Amazon)

• Final Look Ahead Line (Saturday night): NYJ -7
• World Opener (Sunday afternoon): NYJ -6.5
• Current (Monday 2PM ET): NYJ -6

The Patriots are 2-0 ATS vs. their early week number, but only 1-0-1 ATS if you’ve been betting on them on game day, as late money has come in on New England each week, adjusting their number before the 1 PM ET kickoff. The market has recognized the Patriots’ ability to establish a defensive, run-based style, which in 2024 has proven to be a workable formula as we have seen league-wide struggles in the passing game. While New England’s passing game has been as muted as anyone in the league, their defense has allowed only 30 points in regulation across two games and their running game has been strong. For the Jets, Aaron Rodgers has failed to impress in either of his first two full games for the franchise, unable to top 200 yards passing in either. Jets WR Garrett Wilson has been quiet, failing to surpass 60 yards in either game and not experiencing the Rodgers-bump many fantasy owners anticipated.

Verdict: Patriots upgraded 1/2 point, Jets downgraded 1/2 point

Sunday

LAC @ PIT (1PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: PIT -2
• World Opener: PIT -2.5
• Current: PIT -2

These teams encapsulate the 2024 NFL season perhaps better than any other. Neither offensive has been the talking lead, but the teams have smashed expectations by limiting their own turnovers and forcing their opponents into many mistakes due to stifling defense. Both the Chargers and Steelers are 2-0 SU & ATS, with each defense allowing only a single touchdown in two games. The line in this match-up remains close to where it was in the summer, reflecting that both teams have seen upgrades to a similar degree after two weeks.

Verdict: No change from previous week, both teams upgraded ½ point

CHI @ IND (1PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: IND -2.5
• World Opener: IND -1.5
• Current: IND -1.5

In Week 1, the Colts were upgraded despite losing, and the Bears were downgraded despite winning. In Week 2, both teams lost, but the Bears showed enough offensively to warrant a net upgrade, with Caleb Williams' performance improving slightly from his woeful debut. The Bears' offensive line may be as porous as ever, but there is again a glimmer of hope about long-term improvement thanks to Williams' Week 2 flashes. Meanwhile, the Bears' defense has remained strong through two games against AFC South opponents and will look to keep it going in Week 3 versus a third. On the other side, Colts QB Anthony Richardson had his worst game as a pro in Week 2 in Lambeau, throwing three interceptions and registering a 43.6 grade from PFF, second-worst among quarterbacks in Week 2, better only than the now-benched Bryce Young.

Verdict: Bears upgraded 1/2 point, Colts downgraded 1/2 point.

HOU @ MIN (1 PM ET / FCBSOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: MIN +3
• World Opener: MIN +3
• Current: MIN +1.5

The Vikings' defense has held their opponents a combined 23 points below Vegas expectations over two games. On the other side of the ball, Sam Darnold has been dealing better than at any point in his NFL career, throwing for 9.5 yards per attempt. This across the board beat over expectations from the Vikings has lead Minnesota's updated season Win Total to be re-posted at O/U 9.5 Wins (shaded to the Under) a near two-win improvement from preseason expectations. While Houston largely met expectation in their working-man like win over the Bears, the Vikings are making a claim as potential playoff contenders in what many thought was a quarter-backless rebuilding year.

Verdict: Vikings upgraded 1.5 points, Texans downgraded a 1/2 point

NYG @ CLE (1PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: CLE -6.5
• World Opener: CLE -6.5
• Current: CLE -6.5

Through the Sunday games there has been only nine Week 2 QBs to be graded by PFF with 70.0+ offensive grade (For context, below 70 is in the "replacement level" zone), and embattled QB Daniel Jones of the Giants and Deshaun Watson were among those nine. For Watson, although he didn't throw for a touchdown and his team mustered only 18 points - that is a massive sign of improvement from Week 1 where he was the worst graded QB in the league. 'Decent to not-terrible' range is an excellent goal for Watson, and if Week 2 is any indication, it is obtainable.

Jones must have felt he did enough to win leading New York to three touchdown drives vs. 0 for the Commanders. He has found a connection with rookie WR Malik Nabers who is on pace for 1500 yards in his debut campign. It's notable that the Giants are getting nearly a touchdown against a Browns team that hasn't scored 20 points yet this season.

Verdict: No change, despite their QBs coming off their career low moments in Week 1, neither team has been impressive.

PHI @ NOR (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: NOR +3.5
• World Opener: NOR +3
• Current: NOR +2.5 (Pre-MNF)

The Saints' offense has been incredibly efficient, scoring on all of their first 15 drives this season (12 touchdowns, 3 field goals). Despite this, the market was slow to upgrade them after Week 1, likely due to weaker competition in the Panthers. However, Week 2 against a stronger opponent confirmed that New Orleans' offense has made significant strides compared to last season. With new OC Klint Kubiak, a rapidly improving offensive line, and major talent at the skill positions, the Saints appear poised for a big season. The line for next week's game against the Eagles has now moved through the key NFL number of three, underscoring the market’s recognition of New Orleans' offensive transformation.

The Saints are now favored to make the playoffs at -200 and are listed as +140, neck-and-neck co-favorites with the Buccaneers to end the year as NFC South Champions.

Verdict: The Saints have been upgraded by 1.5 points, Eagles playing on MNF*

DEN @ TB (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: TB -4.5
• World Opener: TB -6.5
• Current: TB -6.5

Much like their NFC South rivals, the Saints, Tampa Bay’s Week 1 win was initially explained away due to their opposition being the Commanders and a rookie quarterback. However, like the Saints, after beating a 2023 playoff team, which saw the Bucs stifling the Lions' offense despite missing three defensive starters, the market has taken note of the Bucs. Tampa Bay improved to 2-0 SU & ATS, and the betting market has adjusted accordingly, giving them around a 75% chance to improve to 3-0 after playing Denver. Todd Bowles, now 10-3-1 ATS in Weeks 1 and 2 in his coaching career, has managed to take the Bucs to 2-0 in each of his three seasons at the helm. However, it is worth noting that despite this early success, Bowles’ Bucs have never started 3-0 under his leadership.

Verdict: Bucs upgraded 1.5 points, Broncos downgraded a 1/2 point

GB @ TEN (1 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: TEN -1.5
• World Opener: TEN -2
• Current: TEN -2.5 (-120)

This game theoretically brings about a "Malik Willis revenge game" narrative, though his stats have been so far from impressive that it’s clear he is unlikely to be the deciding factor if the Packers pull off the road upset. Despite his underwhelming individual performance, Willis has managed a 2-2 record as an NFL starter. Similar to his first career win as the Titans’ starter in 2022, Willis largely stayed out of the way with his new team, allowing the Packers to lean on their rushing attack, which totaled 53 carries in their home win over the Colts. The Packers' game plan is built around their ground game, continuing to mitigate Willis’ shortcomings at quarterback, especially given his limited time with this team and system.

Verdict: Packers downgraded 1 point as the market grows more certain Willis will remain at QB. Love remains unlikely to return, though reports from Green Bay suggest neither the team nor Love has ruled out a Week 3 comeback for the 4th-year player.

CAR @ LV (4:05PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: LV -4.5
• World Opener: LV -7
• Current (post-Bryce Young benching): LV -5.5

For the second year in a row, Bryce Young has struggled, ranking as the worst quarterback in the league. The team has seen enough and decided to bench the 2023 number 1 overall pick in favor of veteran Andy Dalton. Las Vegas, meanwhile, put up a well-rounded performance, outscoring the Ravens 13-0 in the final 12 minutes of the fourth quarter. Despite the Raiders’ impressive comeback and Carolina’s loss, the market upgraded the Panthers by 1.5 points after it was announced Young would be benched. Last season, with Dalton starting, the Panthers scored 27 points in Seattle, more than twice the 13 PPG the team averaged in Young’s starts.

Verdict: LV upgraded 1/2 point, CAR downgraded 1/2 point

MIA @ SEA (4:05PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line (Thursday, Pre-Tua injury): SEA +1.5
• World Opener: SEA -5
• Current: SEA -5.5

The Dolphins were initially favored in this matchup, but Tua Tagovailoa’s injury caused a significant 6-point shift as Miami prepares to start backup QB Skylar Thompson. While the Dolphins' offensive potential is clear, fully unlocking it will be a challenge if Tua misses extended time. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have started strong, securing their first 2-0 start since the 2020 season, which has further boosted market confidence.

Verdict: Dolphins downgraded 5.5 points, Seahawks upgraded 1/2 point

DET @ ARI (4:05 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: ARI +4.5
• World Opener: ARI +3.5
• Current: ARI +3

Despite the record book showing 1-1 SU & ATS, the Lions have been one of the more unimpressive teams so far this season, particularly on offense. Detroit is averaging just 18 points per game in regulation through two games, a significant drop from the 27.1 PPG they posted last season. Additionally, the one win Detroit has now looks much less impressive given the Rams’ no-show in Arizona in Week 2. Meanwhile, Arizona enters this game with Kyler Murray coming off a near-perfect performance, poised to take advantage of Detroit’s struggling secondary. Murray will relish the opportunity to expand on his connection with Marvin Harrison Jr. after the pair racked up over 100 yards and 2 TDs in the first quarter vs. LA. Arizona's offense looks to continue its momentum.

Verdict: ARI upgraded 1-point, DET downgraded 1-point

BAL @ DAL (4:25 PM ET / CBS)

• Final Look Ahead Line: DAL PK'em
• World Opener: DAL +1
• Current: DAL +1.5

Both the Ravens and Cowboys enter this game desperate for a win. The line initially shifted from Dallas as a slight favorite in the lookahead to being a slight underdog, reflecting some market concerns about the Cowboys' ability to protect Dak Prescott and generate consistent offense. Baltimore, coming off a loss, has seen more favorable market movement, as the Ravens at least looked the part through three quarters before fumbling a game away in the fourth quarter for the second year in a row vs. a Gardner Minshew-led squad. On the Ravens’ side, this trend comes into play: teams that made the playoffs the previous year and start 0-2 are 59% ATS in Week 3 since 2001 (27-19-3 ATS). Teams like the Ravens that won at least one playoff game the previous year are an even better 64% ATS (14-8-1 ATS).

Verdict: Ravens downgraded ½ point, Cowboys downgraded 1.5 points

SF @ LAR (4:25 PM ET / FOX)

• Final Look Ahead Line: SF -4.5
• World Opener: SF -7
• Current: SF -7.5

Injuries have ravaged the Rams, who were demolished by the Cardinals in Week 2. With Cooper Kupp sidelined and WR Puka Nacua already on IR, the Rams' ability to protect Matthew Stafford and find opportunities downfield is a key concern against Fred Warner and the 49ers' defense. Despite losing Christian McCaffrey to injury for a few weeks, the 49ers remain strong contenders. They've been upgraded overall in this divisional matchup, even after a poor performance in Week 2 with a loss to the Vikings.

Verdict: 49ers downgraded 1/2 point, Rams downgraded 3-points (due to injury and results combined)

SNF: KC @ ATL (8:20 PM ET / NBC)

• Final Look Ahead Line: KC -3.5
• World Opener: KC -4.5
• Current: KC -4.5 (MNF pending*)

The Kansas City Chiefs proved once again why they are one of the most formidable teams in the NFL, winning despite Patrick Mahomes having his least productive start ever as a passer, with only 150 yards through the air. Even with Mahomes' struggles, the Chiefs managed to score 26 points and secure a victory against a desperate Bengals team that has an excellent record coming off a loss in the Burrow-era. The market sees the result as an indication that while their offense may still need some fine-tuning, the Chiefs remain a powerhouse. Kansas City has now won eight consecutive games.

Verdict: Chiefs upgraded 1/2 point, Falcons playing on MNF*

MNF: JAX @ BUF (7:30 PM ET / ESPN)

• Final Look Ahead Line: BUF -4
• World Opener: BUF -6
• Current: BUF -5.5

The Bills' balanced offense continues to impress, and their defense has held firm despite mounting injuries in their linebacker corps. The Jaguars' offense has struggled significantly after a solid start against Miami in Week 1. While Travis Etienne's fumble in Week 1 provided some excuse, the fact remains that Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' offense have managed only 13 points, including just one touchdown, over their last six quarters.

Verdict: Jaguars downgraded 1/2 point, Bills upgraded 1/2 point

MNF: WAS @ CIN (8:15 PM ET / ABC)

• Final Look Ahead: CIN -6.5
• World Opener: CIN -7
• Current: CIN -8.5

Cincinnati's staff & players won’t find much solace in playing the Chiefs to a practical draw in Week 2, but the market has noticed, upgrading them for the cover despite their SU loss vs. the Chiefs in Week 2. The Commanders, on the other hand, failed to impress despite their home victory and cover over the Giants, as the market largely viewed them as the inferior team, benefiting from the Giants’ lack of a kicker.

This game will mark the first time in over eight seasons that an 0-2 team will be more than a touchdown favorite in Week 3. These teams, with the Bengals matching this description, have been strong bets, posting an 11-6 SU and 14-3 ATS record in this spot.

Verdict: Bengals upgraded 1 point, Commanders downgraded 1 point

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