Smoove's NFL Week 4 Betting Preview & Best Bets Matchup Column

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

• Opening Line: Falcons -1.5 / Total: 45.5
• Current Line: Falcons -1.5 / Total: 42
• Smoove Lone: Saints -2.20 / Total: 42.78

We have another tough divisional matchup taking place in the NFC South, with both teams coming off tough losses as the Falcons lost to the Chiefs as 3-point home underdogs and the Saints lost to the Eagles as 2.5-point home favorites. Even though New Orleans is listed as the underdog, they’ve been the better team in this matchup, winning 4 of the last 5 meetings. This line opened Falcons -1.5, and they’re currently getting just 37% of the tickets by 54% of the handle, with the line moving to 2.5, indicating sharp reverse line movement towards Atlanta. Still, my model backs the history of these division rivals and favors the Saints -2.20.

Lean: Saints +2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts

• Opening Line: Steelers +1 / Total: 40
• Current Line: Steelers -1.5 / Total: 40
• Smoove Line: Steelers -0.55 / Total: 38.83

Pittsburgh is one of the two teams that is 3-0 SU and ATS, led by their defense, which ranks 1st in yards allowed (229), points allowed (8.7), and 5th in YPP. Justin Fields hasn’t been great at producing big numbers, but he’s done a great job of taking care of the football. However, Pittsburgh could be in a bad situation for this matchup. Teams that opened as underdogs and closed as favorites have historically struggled to cover the number, as they’re just 71-99 ATS since 2019. That hasn’t stopped public money from showing up to back Pittsburgh, as they’re currently getting 78% of the tickets and 79% of the handle.

Lean: Steelers ML -122

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

• Opening Line: Texans -4.5 / Total: 45.5
• Current Line: Texans -6.5 / Total: 45.5
• Smoove Line: Texans -3.32 / Total: 42.80

Both teams are coming off bad losses, but Jacksonville had to be the most embarrassing loss of NFL Week 3 as they were blown out by 37 points on Monday Night Football for everyone to see, so this is a prideful situation coming up for the Jaguars. Teams that lost by more than 35 points heading into their next game on the road and underdogs of 4 points or more are 50-19-2 ATS (73%) over the last 20 years, so expect a much better effort from the Jaguars in a divisional matchup.

Best Bet: Jaguars +6.5

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

• Opening Line: Packers -2 / Total: 44
• Current Line: Packers -2.5 / Total: 43.5
• Smoove Line: Packers -0.45 / Total: 43.39

Minnesota Vikings have been the surprise of the league through the first three weeks, led by Sam Darnold, as they’re 3-0 SU and ATS, but this is a bad spot for them as Jordan Love returns to the lineup for Green Bay. Teams that are 3-0 SU going into their 4th game as an underdog are just 2-9 SU and 3-7-1 ATS over the last 10 years. Also, this is a bad situation for Sam Darnold as he’s just 6-16 SU and ATS (27.3%) as a road underdog in his career. My model only made the Packers -0.45 favorite, but with Minnesota up against these bad situations, Green Bay is worth a shot to play on the spread and money line.

Best Bet: Packers -2.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers

• Opening Line: Bengals -6.5 / Total: 45
• Current Line: Bengals -4 / Total: 47
• Smoove Line: Panthers -2.55 / Total: 48.79

The Panthers looked like a completely different team after the quarterback change, as Andy Dalton is the only quarterback to have 300 passing yards and three touchdowns in a single game so far this season. He could potentially repeat that performance facing this horrible Bengals defense that allowed a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels to have a 91% completion percentage while having 11 Yards Per Attempt, which is a pretty insane stat. The Panthers' defense hasn’t been much better either, so we could potentially see a high-scoring game in this matchup. This total opened at 45 and moved to 47, but my model made this total 48.79, so there’s some value in playing this over.

Like: Bengals/Panthers over 47

Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears

• Opening Line: Bears -1.5 / Total: 41.5
• Current Line: Bears -3 / Total: 41
• Smoove Line: Bears -3.27 / Total: 42.01

The Rams are coming off an impressive 14-point comeback last week over a division rival as a 7-point underdog, so look for an emotional letdown spot as teams coming off a 14-point comeback in their previous game are just 51-68 SU and 49-70-1 ATS (41.2%) in their next game since 2016. The Bears are also coming off a loss to the Colts last week, but according to the boxscore, they outplayed the Colts with 11 more first downs, 89 more total yards, and having the ball for more than 10 minutes than the Colts. The Rams rank dead last in yards allowed (425.7), YPP (6.9), and Yards Per Attempt (9.4), so Caleb Williams and this Bears offense should have plenty of opportunities to make plays down the field.

Like: Bears +3

Denver Broncos @ New York Jets

• Opening Line: Jets -8 / Total: 38.5
• Current Line: Jets -7.5 / Total: 39
• Smoove Line: Jets -5.45 / Total: 39.05

Denver Broncos are coming off an impressive win on the road by 19 points as 6-point underdogs to the Buccaneers, and the Jets also had a nice win last Thursday night over the Patriots by 21 points as a 6.5-point home favorite. Aaron Rodgers is starting to resemble his play before the injuries, as he was 27/35 for 281 yards and threw for two touchdowns. Rodgers is 31-20-2 ATS (61%) throughout his career when he has extra rest. Denver is just 1-2 SU but 2-1 ATS, and I have them as one of the better teams in the league since they’ve faced one of the tougher schedules so far.

Lean: Broncos +7.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Opening Line: Eagles -1.5 / Total: 46.5
• Current Line: Eagles -2 / Total: 44
• Smoove Line: Eagles -0.46 / Total: 42.52

The Eagles are 2-1 SU and ATS and have a great shot at extending their lead in the NFC East division. They’ll be in a sweet revenge spot. Tampa Bay knocked them out of the playoffs last year, ending their season. Since 2022, under Nick Siriani, the Eagles have been 13-4 ATS (76.4%). Also, the Eagles are 12-1 SU and ATS (92.3%) playing the week before their bye as a favorite.

Best Bet: Eagles -2

Washington Commanders @ Arizona Cardinals

• Opening Line: Cardinals -4.5 / Total: 49.5
• Current Line: Cardinals -3.5 / Total: 50
• Smoove Line: Cardinals -1.07 / Total: 49.47

Washington is coming off a big prime-time upset win over the Bengals by 5 points as a 7.5-point underdog, and the Cardinals will look to bounce back in the win column as they’re coming off a loss to the Lions by 7 points as 3-point underdogs. Both offenses should have no issues moving the ball as the Cardinals' defense ranks 20th in YPP and the Commanders rank 31st, so this matchup could be a potential shootout with the team that has the ball last wins. My model made this line 1.07, so there’s some value in grabbing the points with the Commanders.

Like: Commanders +3.5

New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers

• Opening Line: 49ers -10 / Total: 40.5
• Current Line: 49ers -10 / Total: 40.5
• Smoove Line: 49ers -7.91 / Total: 42.43

We finally have the first double-digit spread of the season, and with the 49ers being one of the most injured teams in the NFL, they may be looking at just securing the win and getting out of this game healthy moving into next week. Teams with a win percentage below .500 off a loss as a double-digit favorite the following week are 14-0 SU and 10-4 ATS since 2010, so this looks like an excellent spot for the 49ers to bounce back as the Patriots have one of the worst offenses that ranks dead last in YPG, passing yards and Yards Per Completion.

Lean: Patriots +10

Cleveland Browns @ Las Vegas Raiders

• Opening Line: Browns -1 / Total: 37.5
• Current Line: Raiders -2 / Total: 37
• Smoove Line: Raiders -3.60 / Total: 42.46

The Raiders are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Panthers by 14 points as 5.5-point favorites, and that led to Antonio Pierce making some bold statements at his press conference calling his teams. Since the best players on this team, Maxx Crosby and DeVante Adams, pushed for Pierce to be the head coach at the end of last season, I expect them to respond in a big way as Pierce is 8-3-1 ATS as the coach of the Raiders. Also, the Browns are in a bad spot as well, as they don’t travel well to play in Mountain or Pacific standard time zones. Since 2003, they’re just 5-21 SU, and since 2019, they’re 0-7 SU, so coming off a loss as 6.5 point favorites to the Giants, don’t expect the Browns to bounce back with a better effort as they’re also dealing with a cluster of injuries to their offensive line.

Best Bet: Raiders -2

Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers

• Opening Line: Chiefs -9 / Total: 39.5
• Current Line: Chiefs -7.5 / Total: 39
• Smoove Line: Chiefs -3.77 / Total: 35.09

Even though the Chargers are dealing with some key injuries, I would not count out this team as Jim Harbaugh is one of the best football coaches to prepare a team, and he’s also one of the best motivators. Plus, the Chargers are in a great situational spot as teams heading into their bye week and facing a divisional opponent and their opponent is not heading into their bye week; those teams are 53-21-1 ATS (71.6%) since 2013, so rely on Taylor Heinicke to keep the Chargers competitive as he’s 6-6-1 SU in his last 13 starts.

Best Bet: Chargers +7.5

Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens

• Opening Line: Ravens -2.5 / Total: 45.5
• Current Line: Ravens -2.5 / Total: 46.5
• Smoove Line: Bills -0.90 / Total: 44.76

This will be the matchup of the week, as both teams are coming off impressive wins. This could be a potential AFC playoff matchup between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, two of the top five quarterbacks in the league. This line opened at Ravens -2.5, and there hasn’t been much movement. 65% of tickets and 66% of the handle back the Bills, and my model is supporting the public underdog, making the Bills -0.90.

Lean: Bills +2.5

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins

• Opening Line: Dolphins -1 / Total: 38
• Current Line: Dolphins -1 / Total: 36.5
• Smoove Line: Titans -1.06 / Total: 35.80

Will Levis’ future in the NFL as a starting quarterback depends on him winning this game. Brian Callahan has already called him out on the sideline and in his press conferences for his boneheaded turnovers that have cost his team chances to win games, and he’s also had meetings with the owner about benching Levis and moving on to Mason Rudolph. The downgrade for the Dolphins going from Tua to Thompson was -5 points, and from Tua to Tyler Huntley is -4 points, so Tennessee should find a way to win as long as Will Levis plays a clean game and if he doesn’t prepare to hear breaking news of another 2nd year 1st round drafted quarterback being benched.

Like: Titans +1

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

• Opening Line: Lions -4.5 / Total: 49
• Current Line: Lions -3.5 / Total: 46.5
• Smoove Line: Lions -2.43 / Total: 45.11

Seattle is 3-0 SU but will face their first true test of the season as they face the Detroit Lions on the road as underdogs. The Lions are 37-17 ATS (68.5%) over the last four years, so if Seattle can find a way to win, their 3-0 start to the season will be validated even though they’ve faced a weak schedule. This line opened at Lions -4.5, with them getting 64% of the tickets and 76% of the handle, but the line has come down to 3.5, indicating some sharp reverse line movement backing the Seahawks. My model made this line 2.43, so there’s slight value in backing Seattle in this spot.

Lean: Seahawks +3.5

Justin 'Smoove' Everett (@Smoove_702)

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