Let's remind ourselves that after the guys Tier 2 have been drafted, you've gotta throw ADP out the window. If you've got a guy in your Tier 3 or Tier 4 who you believe is a top 10 QB but isn't regarded highly by your competition, then by all means wait and draft him later.
This is where Tyrod Taylor comes into the fold. Recency bias is KILLING his current value/ADP. If you're like me and have done probably 100+ mock drafts this offseason you'll notice that nearly every single time Taylor is going undrafted. But why? The last time Tyrod punched in a full season as a started was for a ball-control, defensive-minded Bills team in 2016. The result? Tyrod was QB6 overall. The year before in 2015? Same shit. Tyrod was the QB7. I get it, we're talking about 2015-2016 and it's 2020. Doesn't matter in this case. Tyrod is only 30 years old, with a ton less mileage on his legs than the 31-year-old Russell Wilson. Must we remind ourselves that Tyrod is reunited with former Bills coach Anthony Lynn, when Tyrod threw for over 3,000 yards and 37 combined touchdowns as opposed to just 12 interceptions. Tyrod added 1,148 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on 199 carries in both those of those seasons combined. Give me that all day as my QB1 and if he somehow loses his job to Justin Herbert I will happily free up a roster spot and stream my way to a fantasy title. Tyrod will run every week, limit turnovers, play behind an improved o-line & faces one of 2020's easiest schedules, according to FantasyPros.
I mentioned Fantasy Pros' Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule chart in my Tier 3 breakdown above, and while it's not an end-all/be-all by any means, it can point to an increase an optimism or pessimism surrounding certain players. In this case the Chargers again are one of just 12 teams to garner a 4-out-5 positive matchup rating for QBs against opposing defenses this season. Tyrod potentially could face the Bengals, Dolphins, Panthers, Jets, Jaguars and Raiders in six of his first nine games. In a COVID-19 season where continuity rules and rookies are at a disadvantage, I expect Anthony Lynn to start Tyrod all 16 games and rekindle the old Bills flames of 2015-16 when Tyrod was a straight stud from week to week with a high rushing floor and limiting turnovers.
You can make similar arguments in favor of Cam Newton and Aaron Rodgers, two veteran signal-callers whose primes have seemingly passed them by. But you'd be mistaken to overlook the fact that Rodgers has never finished OUTSIDE the top 10 in any full season he has played in his career. 2020 is a YOLO year for Rodgers with Jordan Love waiting in the wings. He hears the criticism about his declining numbers and if any year he has extra motivation to put up numbers, it's this year. Same goes for Cam, who might've just wound up in the perfect scheme with Josh McDaniels calling plays and an actual underrated crew of weapons around him in James White, Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry and young potential breakouts in Jakobi Meyers and Damien Harris. I will always take the rushing upside/floor of guys like Tyrod and Cam before guys who offer nothing with their legs and could fall off at any second like Brees, Brady & Big Ben.
Just a quick note about Ryan Tannehill, who between Weeks 9-16 was the QB2 overall in fantasy points per game behind Lamar Jackson. While you might doubt his overall talent and yes negative TD regression could be coming in a major way, Tannehill benefits massively from teams stacking the box against Derrick Henry in way that no other starting quarterback in the NFL could imagine. Tannehill, of every player in this tier, has the ability for a top-5 finish and could improve even more in just his second season NOT under the putrid coaching regime of Adam Gase. Look for Tannehill to take advantage of Derrick Henry's attention in the box and use his legs a little bit, too. Even with a major dip in TD % he would still rank as a solid QB1 / top 10 option looking at what he did in 2019. Regression factored in, he is still a fringe QB1 option with top 10 upside just having Derrick Henry as his teammate. Don't hesitate to snag Tannehill in Round 12 or later if he's there.
Overall this is by far my favorite QB tier for the value you're getting at these guys' ADP. You can literally wait until round 16 to draft Tyrod and get a potential top 10 QB. Wait until round 12 for Tannehill or Cam even though they both also have recent top 10 campaigns under their belt. Rodgers' ADP is the highest of the bunch but is also falling fast. Our next members of Tier 5 are all going multiple rounds ahead of the Tier 4 guys I've been hyping up here, and it makes no sense. Take the rushing floor and upside, especially if it's there late in drafts. That's the case for at least three, if not all four, of these guys in Tier 4. Rodgers could be the only one drafted inside the top 10 to 12 rounds depending on how high Cam Newton's stock continues to rise.
- Tyrod - Was QB6 & QB7 in last two seasons as starter with Lynn. All in.
- Cam - Could we see vintage Cam? Even if not, he still has top 10 upside.
- Tannehill - Tempted to move him up. Life is so much easier with Henry.
- Rodgers - Hasn't been this motivated since Brett Favre. It's about time.