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By Chris Dell
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Player Prop Bets I Made For Week 3
*win/loss units is based on betting to win 1 unit on each favored prop and risking 1 on each underdog prop
Chris Olave OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards BetMGM -110 One Unit (Would play up to 47.5 yards for Half Unit)
Chris Olave was the week two air yards leader with 334, number two was Jaylen Waddle with 180, Olave finished week two with 13 targets, five catches for 80 yards. The Buccaneers
ran a majority of zone defense versus the Saints which allowed Olave to accumulate these stats. The Panthers also ran mostly zone week 2 against the Giants. Olave played on 12 of the possible 13 snaps in 12 personnel, he was taken off the field eight times in three-receiver sets. This is a formation he sure is to see increased playing time. This prop of 39.5 receiving yards could have been lower if not for Olave 51 yard catch with 2:36 left in the game against Tampa Bay. Olave has a 26.1 yard aDot on his 14 targets this season. Olave is the first player to have an over 25 yard aDOT on at least 10 plus targets since Mike Wallace did it week 12 of the 2013 season, Olave has 13 plus targets.
Garrett Wilson OVER 47.5 Receiving Yards Bet365 -110 One Unit buy price 56.5
Third on the list for total air yards is Garrett Wilson with 164. Jets/Bengals point total is 45. This game has the potential to be a shootout. Last week both Moore and Davis had more snaps then Wilson, Wilson ran two more routes then Davis and only eight less then Moore. While Wilson saw a majority of his snaps in the slot, most of his production came lined up out wide. Wilson was targeted on 10 of his 16 snaps when lined up out wide for 62.5% snap share while achieving 5.19 yards per route run from that spot. With this outcome Wilson should be in line for more snaps out wide over Davis.
Dameon Pierce OVER 58.5 Rushing Yards Bet365 -110 One Unit
The Donald Pierce era has started in Houston. In one week Pierce went from sharing a backfield with Rex Burkhead against the Colts, to being the lone running back versus the Broncos. Getting 15 carries for 69 yards while receiving 62% of the snaps in the backfield compared to Burkhead getting zero carries while lining up for 37% of the snaps in the backfield. This week we should see what Pierce could do in a positive game script as the Texans offensive line has a positive run advantage against the lowest rank run defenses in the NFL per the research we are doing here at the Betting Predators using our Cheat Sheet.
Treylon Burks OVER 38.5 Receiving Yards Bet365 -110 Half Unit
Treylon Burks was the only bright spot in what was an embarrassing game against the Bills Monday night. Burks finished with the best stat line for Tennessee. Four catches for 47 yards on six targets. Treylon and the rest of the starters were pulled from the game with 3:49 left in the
third quarter. Like the Chris Olave receiving yards line this line for Burks could have been closer to 45-50 yards if Burks finishes four quarters Monday night with another 20 receiving yards and a couple more catches. Burks also went over this current line week one with 55 yards receiving against the Giants. Tennessee is at home Sunday versus Las Vegas who has given up 68 yards to Hollywood Brown and 55 yards to Greg Dortch last week right after allowing Keenan Allen 66 yards in less than two quarters. Allen’s replacement DeAndre Carter had 64 yards after taking over for the injured wide receiver.
Miles Sanders OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards Bet365 -110 One Unit
Miles Sanders has crushed this 63.5 rushing yards over in each of his first two games. Week two he finished with 80 yards on 17 rush attempts and week one Miles had 96 yards on 13 rush attempts. This week Sanders and his offensive line rank second in rushing advantage per the Betting Predators research team. Sanders also faces a low ranked Washington run defense that is tied in run stop defense with Detroit, who Philadelphia faced week one. With the line set at -6.5 in favor of the Eagles, this should be another blowout win for the Eagles with Sanders running in a positive game script.
Evan Engram OVER 3.5 Receptions DK -120 Half Unit
Evan Engram crushed this number last week with seven receptions on eight targets. As for week one Engram also beat this number with four catches. Now Jacksonville travels to Los Angeles to face a Chargers defense that allowed five catches to Travis Kelce week two and four catches to Darren Waller week one. The Jaguars were up 24-0 going into the fourth quarter last week and Engram was still catching balls with two of his seven receptions coming in a fourth quarter blowout. The Jaguars are currently a 3.5 underdog on the road and line will climb back up to around six if Justin Herbert plays. Engram is productive in both positive and negative game scripts.
Ashton Dulin OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards Caesars -113 Half Unit
The Colts are in need of a spark to jump start what is a disappointing season so far. Week three will definitely not get any easier for Indianapolis as the high power offense of the Kansas City Chiefs come to town. Michael Pittman looks to be ready to return this week from his quadricep injury and Alec Pierce has cleared concussion protocol, but will both these wide receivers be 100%. Dulin has stepped his game up, with 79 yards receiving in week two and 46 yards receiving week one and that's not even the most impressive stat! Dulin ranks 6th in targets per route run rate. Burks, Hill, St.Brown, Diggs, Waddle only rank higher, and he is tied with Kupp and London. This line is a steal at 19.5 and could beat this over on the first drive of the day.
AJ Green UNDER 34.5 receiving yards Bet365 -110 One Unit
Cardinal fans are counting down the game until DeAndre Hopkins returns so AJ Green can go back to the bench. Green had a chance to shine week two versus an average defensive
secondary in the Raiders and put up a measly 16 yards. Green caught three balls on seven targets in a game that Arizona came back and won after being down 23-0 at halftime. That script couldn't get any more positive. Kingsbury is on the record saying he wants to play Green less but with Hopkins suspended and Moore to miss week three we could see Green with another big snap count but his lack of production and age should lead to Green to receiving yards in the teens again.
Jaylen Waddle OVER 5.5 Receptions FanDuel -130 One Unit and OVER 21.5 Longest Receptions Bet365 -115 Half Unit
In what is sure to be the shootout of the week. Dolphins/Bills total is 53 and Waddle will be contributing immensely. Waddle last week was targeted 19 times with 11 catches for 171 yards in a thrilling comeback win against the Ravens. Buffalo enters this contest down a couple key secondary players, cornerback Dane Johnson and Micah Hyde will miss week three and safety Jordan Poyer is a game time decision. Waddle should see one on one coverage this week while Buffalo looks to contain Hill. The Dolphins used Hill as a decoy alot in the first half against Baltimore and will probably do the same this week giving Waddle room to catch short passes and make big plays.
Tyreek Hill OVER 24.5 Longest Reception Caesars -113 Half Unit
The Dolphins did a masterful job against the Ravens using Hill as a decoy in the first half of their match up week two. Hill missed a bit of the game with cramps, but in his return Hill torched the Ravens secondary in the second half of the game. Hill had three of his 11 receptions go for 20 yards or more. Again Buffalo could be down 3 of their starters in the secondary this week and Hill should feast again on a weak secondary and catch multiple balls for 25 plus yards again.
Tua Tagovailoa OVER Longest Completion 36.5 Caesars -113 Half Unit
We've talked Dolphins playmakers, now let's talk about the quarterback that makes the magic happen. Tagovailoa and his offensive line better pack their lunch Sunday because they are going to be challenged by the top pass rush in the NFL. With that being said the Dolphins have done a great job of scheming their offense around making sure to throw the pass rush off balance both against Baltimore and against the defensive guru Bill Belichick week one. Tua had four completions week two that were over 30 yards. With so many ways to complete this over Tua doesn’t even need to throw a 60 yard bomb. Waddle and Hill are capable of getting 37 yards on a screen, slant, or button hook.
Devin Singletary UNDER 39.5 Rushing Yards BetMGM -115 Half Unit
There are so many factors stacked against Singletary to hit this over. First, The Bills rank lowest in our cheat sheet rankings for run blocking, dead last according to ESPN run block win rate, while Miami run defense ranks top nine or better across the board. As far as the Buffalo offense goes, even in a positive game script for a running back, Buffalo had Josh Allen throwing the ball
almost every down this past Monday night with a 17, 24, 27 point lead. Buffalo's backfield consists of four running backs, Singletary, Moss, Cook, and their RB one Josh Allen. The Dolphins have the offense to match Buffalo score for score while also a defense that will not allow any of the three Bills running backs to get loose.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 19.5 Longest Reception @ FD -108
The Colts love to run single high safety on defense. This could allow MVS to get past his man and beat the safety for big plays. Jacksonville had success in the air against this weak Colts secondary and the Texans had Cooks with a long 42 yard catch week one. Maholmes has done a good job of getting all his pass catches involved in the offense and this game could be a game where Maholmes looks to get MVS comfortable with the offense and build his confidence going forward.
St. Brown > Thielen Rec Yds @ DK -230/ St. Brown -2.5 Targets > Thielen DK -105
This matchup isn’t even close. St. Brown is a top 10 wide receiver in this league and has 24 targets so far this year in two games while averaging 90 receiving yards a game. Adam Thielen could very well be the fourth option, maybe even the fifth option as a pass catcher in this Vikings offense. With only 11 targets on the season so far tying him with running back Dalvin Cook, Thielen only has 88 yards for the season so far. Minnesota looks to bounce back this week and possibly take a lead to the point that Thielen is playing in a negative script and would need all his yards and targets in the first part of this game. St. Brown and the Lions are five point underdogs this week and could be playing from behind putting St. Brown in a positive game script this week. Thielen entered this season on the wrong side of his 30’s as St. Brown hasn’t even entered his prime yet.
Cooks -1.5 targets > Mooney DK -135
On the season Cooks has a 22 to five advantage against Mooney in targets this season. Yes Chicago played in that awful rain game week one against the 49ers, but last week against the Packers Mooney only managed two targets in what was a positive game script and could not get open. Houston is a three point dog and we could see the ball forced Cooks way as the Texans work to stay in this game,
AJ Brown -1.5 Targets > Dotson DK -135 and AJ Brown -.5 Targets > Mclaurin DK -130
Marquise Brown -0.5 Targets > Allen Robinson DK -115 and Marquise Brown -6.5 receiving yards > Allen Robinson DK -115
Alvin Kamara UNDER 76.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards BetMGM -115 Half Unit
Joe Flacco OVER 35.5 Passing Attempts DK -115 Half Unit
Curtis Samuel OVER 4.5 Receptions Fanduel -113 Half Unit
Geno Smith UNDER 218.5 Passing Yards Unibet -114 Half Unit buy price 209.5
Javonte Williams UNDER 48.5 Rushing Yards DK -110 Buy Price 47.5 One Unit
Melvin Gordon UNDER 38.5 Rushing Yards DK -110 Buy Price 37.5 One Unit