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WEEK 3 BEST BETS: 7-5-1 (+4.35 units)
1 unit plays: 3-4-1
2 unit plays: 4-1
PIT/CLE U19 1H and U38 (-2 units total)
This entire play was about the wind. Unfortunately, the 24mph winds weren’t as substantial as expected. Although 20+ mph winds have a great effect on the passing game, both of these teams prefer to keep the ball on the ground. I probably over estimated the impact of the wind based on that and upon the line move that happened throughout the week. With that said, all totals regardless of number went bust by game's end.
MIN/DET O51 (+2 units)
Detroit has been a monster over team the last two years. They simply don’t give up. As 6.5 dogs, I expected them to be coming from behind. That didn’t happen as the Vikings continued to sputter with the new coaching staff. Thankfully, they were able to eventually take advantage of the porous defense and score a go-ahead touchdown that put us over the top with under a minute left. I think Minnesota will be better as the year goes on. I do think I need to seriously consider making a large adjustment to the Lions power rating.
KC -2 (LIVE) (-1 unit)
I played this after the Colts scored the first touchdown of the game. I’m not even sure I was wrong with the play, it just didn’t work out. The Chiefs were 76% to win and cover with just over 2 minutes left in the game. Matt Ryan and company just made more plays down the stretch. Live betting is not my forte, but backing Mahomes less than a field goal that early in the game only down one score should almost be a blind bet moving forward. I chalk this one up to variance.
NE Team Total U21.5 (-2 units)
With Jakobi Meyers scratched and the Ravens getting two key secondary players back, I thought it would be enough for the Baltimore to keep the Pats under this number. After all, they hadn’t eclipsed this mark all year. I was wrong, not because of outcome, but because it wasn’t a play that deserved my money. There will be a sky-high total next week for Buffalo and Baltimore and if this game is any indication, I’m not sure it will be enough. Baltimore’s defense is really this bad.
MIA/BUF O53 (-1 unit)
28 points at halftime did little to help the over in this one. With Tua being concussed and somehow cleared to return, the Dolphins became much more conservative. Buffalo simply couldn’t battle the Dolphins and the Miami heat. The latter of which was something I had never considered in the contest. The Bills were cramping and panting in a manner I haven’t seen in a very long time. I think the total clears the number in Buffalo. Unfortunately for me and my bank account, it was played in the Florida humidity.
HOU +3 Lookahead (Push)
This lookahead was all about catching a field goal with two teams I have power rated equally. I think the Texans are a team that is on the rise (although they have a long way to go). The Bears seem like a ship lost in the night. Fields is not the answer and the coaching staff looks pathetic. With that said, they jumped out to a 10 point lead to start and were able to hold on late. With a push, no harm no foul, but I’m certainly not increasing either power rating based on this one.
CIN -6 Lookahead (+1 unit)
We didn’t get the actionable CLV we tend to expect from our lookaheads, but we ended up with the win. The Jets were riding high off a come from behind win last week, but this one reminded us they are still not good and Joe Flacco is not the answer. I am not sure what the market will do with the Jets when Zach Wilson returns, but I’m not rushing to the window to support them. I expect some major rust from him and he wasn’t good before the injury. Conversely, the Bengals still have major offensive line issues, but I think better days are ahead for them. If they could protect Burrow to a league average ability, they could make another run to the playoffs.
JAX +3.5 (+2 units)
I gave this out just before Herbert was announced the starter. Obviously, I wish I would have waited for confirmation, but I actually liked the +3.5 whether he was playing or not (clearly wish I would have had the 6.5 though). Herbert was hurting and certainly not himself. He was down Keenan Allen pregame and then his starting LT and Joey Bosa both in the 1st Half. I’ve been impressed with the Jags and upgraded them since the opener, but I’m not sure it's enough. The Chargers will have to be downgraded considerably with all these injuries. Herbert playing down 3 scores in the 4th is a fireable offense as far as I’m concerned.
1st Quarter CIN ML (+2 units)
This was my favorite play of the entire weekend. It wasn’t because I did a ton of research, parsed the numbers, or conversed with other professional sports bettors. I was put on this play by simply having the NFL Network on as I perused the betting market. One of their reporters casually mentioned that if the Bengals win the toss they are going to take the ball. That simple fact make this one actionable. It was the biggest play of the weekend for me in my personal portfolio. I haven’t found any win easy this year and this one was the same. Thankfully, Cincinnati threw a bomb to score as the quarter expired to seal the victory. Not much to take away from this one other than continue to read everything, listen to podcasts, and be open to any seemingly insignificant comment being actionable.
HOU +8.5 / GB +7.5 (+1 unit)
I gave this play out on the podcast begrudgingly. I really wanted an ATL/GB teaser, but with the Falcons being steamed just as we were beginning to record, I had to pivot. Thankfully, all 3 legs covered. Green Bay caught a Tampa team that is crippled at the wide receiver position. So much so, they started Cole Beasely who was sitting on his couch watching games last Sunday. I spoke about Houston earlier, but that was expected to be a low scoring affair and unless Chicago was going to score a special teams or defensive touchdown, I simply didn’t see a way they would get margin.
ATL Team Total O20.5 (+1 unit)
I loved this play coming into the weekend and I’m furious I didn’t lay more than one unit on it. Atlanta’s offense has been upgraded substantially and Seattle’s defense is worse than their Week 1 and 2 scoreboards would lead you to believe. Atlanta hit this number at the end of the 3rd. I’m curious if we will still have some value moving forward in relation to Atlanta’s team total over. Their defense isn’t good so they will likely be in shootouts if they are going to be competitive.
SF +8.5 / ATL +8.5 (2 units)
With Atlanta being a late afternoon victory, we waited until the snore fest that was Sunday Night Football to see if our teaser hit. Much of my handicap centered around two teams who relied on their defense and run game, which would accelarate the clock and keep this within the number. There was never a threat to lose this one as the game played out exactly like expected. San Fran will be very effective against teams they can push around and take advantage of the play action pass. They will struggle offensively against teams that don’t fit that description. With that said, I highly doubt we see many games where the defense doesn’t show up.
PENDING: DAL/NYG 1st Half U20 (2 units)