TOP PASS BLOCKING DISADVANTAGES
(BEST PASS RUSH SPOTS):
- Colts -14.3 vs. Jaguars Pass Rush
- Cowboys -13.3 vs. Eagles Pass Rush
- Jets -12.3 vs. Packers Pass Rush
- Giants -12.0 vs. Ravens Pass Rush
- Chargers -11.7 vs. Broncos Pass Rush
Indianapolis Colts -14.3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Colts rank 30th in adjusted sack rate, 31st in pass block win rate, and 31st in quarterback hits given up while ranking 27th in pressure percentage allowed, all on top of Matt Ryan being one of the least mobile quarterbacks in the NFL. Jacksonville, on the other hand, enters this contest with a huge advantage on the edges. Travon Walker and Josh Allen should be able to get pressure on Ryan. It doesn't matter if it's new rookie tackle Bernhard Raimann, Matt Pryor or Dennis Kelly - Jacksonville should get after Ryan all game long. In Week 2, Jacksonville's defense collected five sacks, three interceptions, and a forced fumble. My top prop play for this game, depending on the best juice you can find, is total sacks OVER 4.5, or Jacksonville total sacks OVER 3.5. I expect the Colts to continue to struggle protecting Ryan here.
New York Giants -12.0 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Giants offensive line has only been tested once this season, and the Cowboys collected five sacks in that matchup a few weeks back. Other than left tackle Andrew Thomas, the rest of the Giants offensive line is graded below average per Pro Football Focus. This week the Giants face another tough test against a Ravens defensive front seven with three pass rushers graded 25th or higher per PFF. My favorite prop play for this game is Daniel Jones to throw an interception +100 @ Caesars Sportsbook. Due to to his propensity for turnovers, the Ravens' pass rush advantage and a potential pass-heavy game script for the Giants being +5 home dogs, we could see a ton of opportunities for additional Jones dropbacks in Week 6.
Los Angeles Chargers -11.7 vs. Denver Broncos
Broncos edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Baron Browning should have a field day tossing around the two Chargers offensive tackles in Jamaree Salyer and Trey Pipkins if both suit up. Pipkins hasn't practiced all week and could be playing with an injured knee, while Salyers is graded as an average pass blocker at best per PFF. Chubb is tied for second in sacks with 5.5, while Browning is graded sixth overall as an edge rusher per PFF. The two Jones' - DJ and Dre'Mont - have also combined for 4.5 sacks on the year. Denver is also tied for fourth in sacks this season. Los Angeles does come into this contest allowing the least amount of sacks so far this season, but this is the first game the Chargers will face a top 10 pass rush this season after cupcake matchups recently vs. an injured Cleveland squad and below-average Texans unit.
TOP PASS BLOCKING ADVANTAGES
(BEST PASS BLOCK SPOTS):
- Browns +18.0 > Patriots
- 49ers +13.0 > Falcons
- Ravens +11.7 > Giants
- Jaguars +11.0 > Colts
- Cardinals +10.3 > Seahawks
Cleveland Browns +18.0 vs. New England Patriots
One of the cleanest quarterbacks this season has been Jacoby Brissett. Clevelands starting offensive linemen all grade 30 or higher per Pro Football Focus, and Brissett has only been sacked five times. New England is eighth in the league in sacks with 13 total though, so something has to give here. With Cleveland's pass-block ranking not only the highest in our NFL Betting/Prop Cheat Sheet, Establish The Run's Brandon Thorne also has Cleveland with the biggest advantage at offensive line over New England’s front seven. The Browns will look to run early and often, and they have the talent to certainly do so.
Baltimore Ravens +11.7 vs. New York Giants
The Ravens have one of the best pass blocking offensive lines in the league, as both starting guards Kevin Zeitler and Ben Powers grade 7th and 2nd in pass blocking, respectively. With the return of Ronnie Stanley at tackle, this offensive line could be one of the best in the NFL in a couple of weeks. As for the Giants front seven, other than Dexter Lawrence, no other player grades over 30, so it's safe to say that Lamar Jackson will have plenty of room to operate and find his targets downfield in Mark Andrews and Devin Duvernay.
Arizona Cardinals +10.3 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Fireworks! I simply can't wait for this game this Sunday. Arizona has huge advantages at both run and pass protection against this Seahawks defense. With a +10.3 pass advantage per our NFL Betting/Prop Cheat Sheet and also a +11 offensive line vs Seattle's defensive line, according to Brandon Thorne from Establish The Run, there's a clear edge for Arizona in the trenches here. Guard Will Hernandez and tackle D.J. Humphries also each grade in the top 15 in pass blocking per PFF. My prop play for this game is simply the total OVER for the game, 50.5 Points, -106 @ FanDuel. I believe both offenses are set up beautifully here, especially with poor the Seahawks defense has been all year. We have enough explosive playmakers on both sides of the ball to help make this one of the more entertaining games on Sunday afternoon.
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