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TOP RUN BLOCKING DISADVANTAGES (WORST RUSHING MATCHUPS):
Buccaneers -18 vs Rams
Bills -17.3 at Jets
Colts -15 vs Patriots
Bengals -12 vs Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -18 at Los Angeles Rams
Both the Buccaneers and the Rams have been on a downward spiral the past two weeks. The only thing going right for the Rams is their run stopping unit has been elite when their opponent isn't the 49ers. Led by defensive tackle A'Shawn Robinson(rates fifth at run stop win rate at 43% per ESPN) and a Ram's front seven that also include four players graded 20th or higher at run stopping per Pro Football Focus(Bobby Wagner fourth, Ernest Jones eighth, Aaron Donald 10th, and Leonard Floyd 20th). Los Angeles lowest ranking is third overall at run defense per our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet.
Tampa Bay's offensive line strength isn't run blocking. Football Outsiders ranks the Buccaneers 28th at run blocking. Tackle Tristan Wirfs and guard Shaq Mason are the highest graded run blockers on the Buccaneers line but barely grade above average at their position.
Leonard Fournette UNDER 45.5 rushing yards
Buffalo Bills -17.3 vs New York Jets
To be honest, why run when you have Josh Allen under center? Buffalo enters week nine tied for fifth in run/pass percentage. It's hard to grade Buffalo's offensive line when it comes to running the ball, other than guard Ryan Bates the rest of the line grades below average per PFF at run blocking. The Jets have had success stopping the run. Led by edge rusher John Franklin-Myers who ranks ninth at run stop win rate at 32% and grades 24th overall at run defense per PFF. The Jets are stacked with a run stopping front seven that also includes edge rusher Michael Clemons who grades third overall at run defense at the edge, defensive tackle Quinnen Williams who also grades third overall at his position, and three linebackers Quincy Williams, Kwon Alexander, and C.J. Mosley who all grade 33rd or higher at run defense.
TOP RUN BLOCKING ADVANTAGES (BEST RUSHING MATCHUPS):
Saints +10 vs Ravens
Packers +9 at Lions
Lions +8 vs Packers
Titans +8 at Chiefs
New Orleans Saints +10 vs Baltimore Ravens
The Saints go marching into week nine with the second highest run blocking advantage. Football Outsiders rank New Orleans #1 at run blocking and ESPN has the Saints 10th at run block win rate. Center Eric McCoy ranks sixth at run block win rate for centers and tackle Ryan Ramczyk grades eighth at run blocking per PFF.
Baltimore has had a rough time stopping the rush this season. Our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet has the Ravens average rush defense grade at 19.7 putting them at the bottom 10 in the NFL.
Green Bay Packers +9 at Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions +8 vs Green Bay Packers
The Packers and the Lions enter week nine with an advantage at run blocking against their opponent. Green Bay's offensive line is led once again by tackle Yosh Nijman who is seventh in run block win rate per ESPN, while his tackle Elgton Jenkins grades ninth at run blocking per PFF. The Packers offensive line as a whole are not that impressive at run blocking. Ranking 22nd by PFF and 21st at run blocking win rate per ESPN, their ranking by Football Outsiders of 14 overall did help. The Lions run defense rank per our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet was near the bottom. Every ranking was in the 20s. 22nd was the highest by PFF and 28th the lowest by Football Outsiders kept the Lions towards the bottom. There isn't a single Lion in the front seven that graded above average per PFF.
The difference between the line of the Lions is night and day. Detroit has 4 offensive linemen that are graded 20th or higher at run blocking per PFF. PFF also grades the Lions as the 12th best rush blocking line and Detroit is 13th in ESPN rush block win rate. Center Frank Ragnow grades eighth at rush blocking and is ninth at ESPN's individual run block win rate.
The Packers rank dead last in our NFL Betting/Props Cheat Sheet this week for all teams playing on Sunday. Football Outsiders ranks the Packers 32 overall at stopping the run. Edge rusher Preston Smith is the best run stopping defender the Packers have. PFF gave Smith a grade 28th.
By Ben Martinez & Chris Dell
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