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Patriots at Steelers - Dionte Johnson to score a TD (+175)
Dione Johnson OVER 54.5 rec yds…Hard to fade Johnson here with him getting 1/3 of the target share last week. Pittsburgh wasn’t in a pass first offense as they lead for the entire game, so that’s encouraging from a potential game flow perspective. Pats are favored, so the Steelers might have to throw in this game.
Dolphins at Ravens - Tyreek Hill to score a TD (+160)
I love Waddle, but Tyrek Hill is the #1 wide receiver on this team. He showed that last week and the fact that he was used as much as he was, wasn’t surprising to me. Hill led the team in targets with 12 and Tua threw 33 passes. So another wide receiver getting 1/3 of the target share in the first game…If Hill gets another target share like that, I really like my chances to get over this number.
Jets at Browns - Michael Carter to score a TD (+210)
Carter got 17 touches last week on a potential 19 touches and he played really well. He looked inspired and much of that is probably due to Breece Hall playing behind him. Speaking of Hall, I’ll also play Breece Hall to score a TD at +360. All I need is a Jets running back to hit pay dirt and I’m paid. Based off what we saw last week, I have a chance to hit both. Breece Hall had 12 touches on a potential 15 touches. Both Jets running backs were used in the passing attack. Flacco checked down a lot too. I don’t think that changes here.
Bucs at Saints - Russell Gage to score a TD (+285)
Godwin is OUT. That will open up more touches for Gage. I watched the Bucs play last week. Brady was not thrilled with Breshad Perriman as he sent only three targets his way and he caught none of them. Gage had two targets and two catches. If Evans has some shadow coverage on him, I can see Gage getting a healthy share of targets here. He got 42% of the snap share last week. With no Godwin, he has to be at 60% or more this week. At +285, I’ll bite.
Panthers at Giants - Richie James to score a TD (+310)
You have to be encouraged heading into this game that Richie James will see targets based on last week’s results. James was the most targeted wide receiver on the Giants last week. Giants really turned to Barkley to carry the load a week ago as Daniel Jones only had 21 pass attempts. Jones' pass attempts prop this week is 29.5 so that could benefit James here as well.
Commanders at Lions - DeAndre Swift to score a TD (+105)
I'm surprised he’s plus money here on such a game total this high. Swift ran like a man possessed last week with a line of 15 carries 144 yds and 1 TD. He ran for 9.6 ypc and he was the main reason the Lions were able to keep pace with the Eagles. The Commanders rush defense last week wasn’t all that great. They allowed the Jags to rush for 6.8 ypc so another big day could be in order here for Swift.
Falcons at Rams - Kyle Pitts to score a TD (+250)
Pitts and London both had seven targets last week. I expect the Falcons to be trailing and Mariota to need to throw. Pitts is a big target who plays like a wide receiver. What’s interesting is that Cam Akers who barely played and Allen Robinson who had only two targets last week, are listed above him. Pitts is the #1 option for the Falcons. I think this prop is price wrong. DK has him to score a TD at just +205 so we are getting some value here at FanDuel.
Seahawks at 49ers - SF Defense to score a TD at 5-1 odds
SF is a mystery to me. They have questions at the running back position and Kittle is questionable again. Geno Smith might show us that he's not the Geno Smith of last week, but more like the Geno Smith we all know and love. Which is why I will throw a dart and play SF Defense to score a TD 5-1. I see this hitting.
Bengals at Cowboys - Joe Mixon to score a TD (-120)
He had 34 touches last week. I talked last week about how many touches he could get. and he got them. Unfortunately, he didn’t hit the end zone, but that won't deter me from playing him again. I also like Semi Fehoko to score a TD at 11-1 odds. This was Cooper Rush’s main target. This is a guy he is probably comfortable with because he works with him all the time with the second team. He had a total of 3 targets in just two drives last week with Rush at QB.
Texans at Broncos - Brandin Cooks to score a TD +190
Houston is likely to be in a pass first offense being a big dog. Cooks had 12 targets last week. Denver pass defense against Geno Smith looked rather bad. DraftKings has +190 and FanDuel has +135 so shop around. I feel like +190 is a good price given the fact that I thought the number would be +140.
Cards at Raiders - Zach Ertz to score a TD +220
The passing attack for the Cards was pretty compact. There were just seven players targeted so that’s good. Ertz didn’t get a ton of work as he only saw four targets and two catches, but he did catch a TD. So if they increase the volume and catches, as I expect them to do this week, then this one can cash.