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WEEK 11 BETTING REVIEW
I felt great about our position after the 1pm games, but the afternoon window really let us down. This really felt like the week we would get back in the black, but alas, we will have to wait until next week to do so. Our weekly winning streak is snapped with a huge thanks to the Broncos and Vikings.
WEEK 11 OVERALL: 6-6 (-0.45 units)
WEEK 11: 5-6 (-1.45 units)
WEEK 11 PROP: 1-0 (1 unit)
SEASON LONG: 47-51 (-7.51 units)
TONY POLLARD OVER 43.5 Rushing Yards (1 unit) WON
NYG/DET U21.5 (1 unit) LOSS
With 2:28 left in the half, the Giants were forced to punt the ball back to the Lions. Unfortunately for us, the Giants only punted it 25 yards. With a fairly short field, the Lions marched down the field and converted a huge 3rd and 2 before punching it in on 1st and Goal. Once the Giants were stopped and had to punt, I genuinely thought we were going to cash the ticket. The fact that up to that point the Lions were only able to manufacture points after getting the ball on the Giants 18 after a Jones interception, only added insult to injury. I still feel good about this play even if it was a loser.
CLE/BUF 1st Half O24 (1 unit) LOSS
The Browns averaged 6.0 ypp, manufactured 11 first half first downs, but only put up 10 points in the first half. Conversely, the Bills looked brutal, only gaining 4.5 yards per play and 134 total yards. The Bills first 3 possessions resulted in 12 total yards and 0 first downs. They came alive after a Browns turnover, but at that point, it was too little too late. The Bills started this game lacking the confidence they had to start the season, particularly in the first half where they score the second most points per game in the league. It’s tough for me to complain too much about this one, considering how bad the Bills looked in the first quarter.
BUF/CLE O43 (2 units) WIN
BUF -7 (2 units) WIN
As I previously stated, Buffalo got off to a very slow start, but turned it on late. The Bills didn’t play their best game, they had a net 0 ypp for the game, but still managed to cover our lookahead. There really was no excuse to lose this game for the bettors. There were plenty of +8 and -7 available across the market, which only magnifies the importance of having multiple outs. As for the total, we won this going away.
NO -1 (2 units) WIN
LAR +4 (2 units) LOSS
LAR/NO U41 (2 units) LOSS
LAR/NO O38.5 (2 units) WON
I mentioned in our Discord Channel that we would most likely lose the vig and split out. Unfortunately, after Mattew Stafford was knocked out of the game, that’s exactly what happened. I genuinely feel that if he had been able to stay in the game we would have middled the side. As for the total, we lost even with a back up quarterback playing the second half. I’m sure the aspect of middling isn’t a sexy decision. In fact, you lose much more frequently than you win. However, the risk is worth the reward, seeing as it is a +EV play. If we are able to get 3 points of line value on the side and total, I’d happily place these bets again.
DET +4 (2 units) WIN
The Giants have been winning close games all year because they have won the turnover battle and the battle on the line. The G-men had no shot in this one seeing they were -3 in turnovers and were dominated on the offensive and defensive line. Worse yet, the team was injured coming into the game and saw 5 starters get injured throughout the contest. Detroit isn’t a good team by any stretch of the imagination. Frankly the Giants and Lions are teams I want to back as dogs and fade as favorites. Moving forward, I’ll be hesitant to back the Giants with all the injuries and coming back on short rest for Thanksgiving.
DEN -2.5 (2 units) LOSS
Kicking a field goal to go up 3 with 3 minutes left should have been enough. But after the Denver offense failed them all season long, the defense returned the favor. The Raiders were able to kick a field goal with 16 seconds left and then took the opening possession of overtime, went 67 yards on 3 plays and scored a touchdown to put the Broncos out of their misery. With 3 minutes left in the game, the stats favored our play. After those last 2 possessions, not so much. The Raiders have one of the worst defenses in the league and still Russell Wilson couldn’t cook. Hell, he can’t even microwave, order out, or find leftovers in the fridge at this point. He’s a homeless man wearing a jersey eating out of a dumpster. The Broncos season is mercifully over, but without first round picks for the foreseeable future, there is no appreciable way for them to get better.
BUF -1.5 / MIN +7.5 (2 units) LOSS
And we are onto Week 12…
By Steve Rieder
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