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WEEK 9 BETTING REVIEW
RECORD: 6-3 (+3.7 units)
After a brutal stretch of bad beats and tickets with nothing but closing line value, we finally are rewarded for our hard work. Betting sides and totals is one of the most frustrating things about betting. You can work your hardest over the entire week, identify the games that have value, figure out the best ways to get down, and still come up empty. It is a frustrating endeavor. Our last few weeks have been the epitome of that. Everything was in line, we finished with closing line value, and the games just didn’t go our way. It’s a weird exercise. If you live and die on CLV, you are doing it wrong. If you live and die on wins and losses, you are also doing it wrong. Which makes sports betting absolutely maddening. There has to be some healthy combination to determine if what you are doing is going to work out in the long run. Otherwise, being a -EV player can cost you a lot of money. Even the best bettors have losing seasons in sides and totals. For us, Week 9 showed the fruits of our labor.
PHI -7 1st Half
PHI -7 Live Bet
It looked like we were going to have a push on our first half bet until Davis Mills led the Texans down the field for a touchdown with seconds left in the half. Even though the play lost, the Eagles were dominant. I genuinely felt like they were showing us just how much better than the Texans were even if the scoreboard didn’t indicate it. Only going one unit on our halftime live bet was probably my mistake. I really liked the play, but the thought of being down 4 units to start the week was a risk I wasn’t willing to take. Even then, the Texans made a run at the end fo the game and almost got it within the number. We finally had a break go our way and perhaps this was the harbinger of things to come.
IND +6
This game showed a fair amount of value based upon my power ratings, which put me on the game. There was some hesitancy playing it because of Bill Bellichick’s propensity to beat rookie quarterbacks, but they gave up 33 points to the Bears who have Fields at quarterback. Although, Fields isn’t a first year player, I thought the same principal was in play. I was wrong. Bilicheck proved me wrong yet again. There is no case for the Colts catching the points to be the right side when the Colts put an incredible 2.0 yards per play.
SEA +8 / LAR +9
SEA +8 / CIN -1
SEA +1 1st Half
Seattle was the biggest position of the week. I thought the Seahawks were a team that the market was relying too much on preseason expectations versus what their actual on field performance was. They have been a really solid team. Top 10 in most metrics. While the Cardinals have been slightly disappointing this year. The Seahawks had better playmakers at key position groups. I teased it up through the seven because instinctually that is what I look to do with short dogs. Seattle has also been one of the best teams in the league in the first half while the Cards have been one of the worst. I made a major adjustment in my power ratings last week for the Seahawks. I’m not sure it was enough. Regarding the Rams leg, I thought the Bucs didn’t have the wherewithal to get separation and win by 2 scores. I rarely, if ever, tease off of 3, but thankfully my creativity was rewarded as Tom Brady orchestrated a season saving drive to put the Bucs up 3 with 9 seconds left.
CIN -0.5 1st Quarter
We have been to this well before and have been rewarded and penalized for it. Each time, it was the right play. The Bengals have been taking the opening kickoff for the last several weeks. They have yet to stray from that. Our beats were based on turnover luck more than anything. I still have all intention of pounding CIN 1st Quarter until the market catches up with it.
DET +3.5
This was probably the play that I liked the least by Sunday, yet the Lions were proven to be the correct side. The only score in the 1st half was a touchdown with 15 seconds left that ended up being the deciding factor in the game. GB had 1.1 nYPP advantage, but lost the turnover margin by 2. All in all, I think the +3.5 was good, but certainly a case could be made for the Packers winning this one in a tight contest. Sometimes, that’s the way things break.
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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