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With NFL Week 9 officially in the books, we adjust our power ratings and look forward to a new slate of games for NFL Week 10. As with every week, to determine a power-rated line, take the difference between the teams' power rating and factor in home field advantage. Remember, power ratings are the start of the handicap and should be a foundation to build upon. These values represent what a team is on any given week. It will certainly fluctuate as the year progresses.
Week 9 was a real let down for the top teams in the NFL. All 3 of the top NFL teams failed to cover this week and the best, the Bills, lost outright. Further proof that the market over-values the league's best.
Biggest Upgrade: Seattle Seahawks
Every time I think I have upgraded the birds enough, their on-field performance says otherwise. On a week to week basis, I think I’m evaluating them in the proper manner. The crux of their power rating comes in their preseason expectations. This was supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. Saying they are not might be an insult at this point. I have officially upgraded them to above average, which still seems a bit curious. I’d rather be cautious with their upgrade rather than overcorrect. I still think the Seahawks are a team we want to back moving forward.
Biggest Downgrade: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams should have won the game and may have even over performed expectations. How could I move them down this much? This downgrade is about much more than this game. Losing a heartbreaker, falling to 3-5, with a bunch of aging veterans off a Super Bowl victory, the Rams cumulative effect could have disastrous consequences. Do they have another all-in effort in them? Possibly. But if they lose their next game, I wouldn’t be shocked if some of these near retirement player start looking forward and their aging quarterback with an elbow injury might start making business decisions.
This could easily have been the Seahawks continuing to outperform expectations. I’ll make this about the Bills. They were, still are, the best team, but lost to a division rival with significantly less talent. The adage, any given Sunday, certainly applies here, but I think this provides a more valuable lesson. With all 3 of the best teams losing this week ATS, no matter how good these teams are, they still can slip up. Taking any 3 of these teams to win the Super Bowl at market, is a -EV play. Certainly they have the best chance to win out of any team, but these prices are short changing you significantly, which is why I rarely bet the favorites in season in the futures market unless I am fading them.
Week 10 Power Ratings
Week 10 Power Ratings vs. Lines
By Steve Rieder
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