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LOOKAHEAD FORECAST HISTORY: 4-2
Week 4: SF -1. The game closed SF -2 and the 49ers won 24-9. (WINNER)
Week 5: MIN -6.5. The game closed 8.5 and the Vikings won 29-22 . (WINNER)
Week 6: PHI -5.5. The game closed 7 and the Eagles won by 26-17. (WINNER)
Week 7: KC -1.5. The game closed -1 and the Chiefs won 44-23. (WINNER)
Week 8: NYG/SEA OVER 43: The game closed 44.5 and the final score was 27-13. (LOSS)
Week 9: LAC/ATL O47.5. The game closed 49.5 and the final score was 20-17. (LOSS)
Week 11: Buffalo Bills -7
There are certain bets you make knowing that it could look bad at the game’s conclusion. This is certainly one of them. With both teams healthy, laying a touchdown is a no brainer. But that’s not the case with MVP favorite Josh Allen fighting off an elbow injury. Without any medical background, projecting Josh Allen’s health is a difficult endeavor. Frankly, I’m not even sure what his injury is called, how long the average recovery time is, or whether a player can play through the pain without risking injury. What I do know is the Bills did not activate another quarterback this week. They are simply riding with Allen and incumbent backup Case Keenum. This doesn’t necessarily mean Allen will start, but it probably means he can play if needed. Under this assumption, Josh Allen will probably start next week hosting Cleveland. Although nothing is a certainty, I feel fairly confident in conservatively estimating he has about an 85% chance to start in Week 11.
With a healthy Josh Allen, I make the game Buffalo -10. I think it is fair to dock him 1.5 points for the injury, which now makes the game BUF -8.5. With an 85% chance to start and a 6 point downgrade to Case Keenum, with all things considered, Buffalo should be laying 7.8 points. With us laying a touchdown, which is a key number, we have a positive EV play. I’m not taking off the rubber band, but the risk is worth the reward. The Bills -7 has made my lookahead card.
By Steve Rieder
@AvoidTheVig
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