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LOOKAHEAD FORECAST HISTORY: 6-2
Week 4: SF -1. The game closed SF -2 and the 49ers won 24-9. (WINNER)
Week 5: MIN -6.5. The game closed 8.5 and the Vikings won 29-22 . (WINNER)
Week 6: PHI -5.5. The game closed 7 and the Eagles won by 26-17. (WINNER)
Week 7: KC -1.5. The game closed -1 and the Chiefs won 44-23. (WINNER)
Week 8: NYG/SEA OVER 43: The game closed 44.5. Final Score: 27-13. (LOSS)
Week 9: LAC/ATL O47.5. The game closed 49.5. Final Score: 20-17. (LOSS)
Week 10: SF -3.5. The game closed SF -7.5. Final Score: 22-16. (WIN)
Week 11: BUF -7. The game closed -8. Final Score: 31-23 (WIN)
Week 12: PHI -6.5. Current Line: PHI -6.5 (PENDING)
Week 13: MIN -3
Week 13: Minnesota Vikings -3
After starting the year 6-2 on our lookaheads and with our Eagles bet pending, we look forward to Week 13 opportunities. The biggest disparity between the market and my power ratings is Minnesota only laying a field goal at home against the Jets. Both teams have overachieved with Minnesota sporting a 9-2 record and the Jets sitting at 6-4. But sharp money has consistently faded the Vikings and backed the Jets. It is true, Minnesota isn’t as good as their record suggests. They are far and away the best team in the NFC North and sitting fat and happy, most likely locking up the division crown already. On the other hand, the Jets are 2 games above .500, but are only 3rd in the AFC East. They are very much in a tightly contested playoff race and simply can’t afford a let down. But the Jets don’t have an answer on offense. In fact, they are starting their 3rd quarterback this season, Mike White, after benching the 2021 #2 overall pick Zach Wilson. They have a 6th ranked defense and a coach in Robert Saleh that seems to have the team all moving in the right direction. If they can figure out the quarterback situation, they could be formidable. If. Their best chance at making a playoff run is with Zach Wilson who is currently benched indefinitely and there is no one walking through that door that will fix that problem.
There are legit concerns that the Vikings might be too far ahead to keep their foot on the gas, but with a 1st round bye and home field advantage within reach, there is no reason for them to do so, especially this early in the season. Kirk Cousin is very effective on Sundays in the early window at home. The Vikings don’t have a phase of the ball as dominant as the Jets Defense, but they are better overall, coming in 3 points better in my power ratings. Our value comes in the Vikings HFA which is one of the best in the league. I love this at -3 and think -3.5 with reduced vig has value.
By Steve Rieder
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