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LOOKAHEAD FORECAST HISTORY: 7-2
Week 4: SF -1. The game closed SF -2 and the 49ers won 24-9. (WINNER)
Week 5: MIN -6.5. The game closed 8.5 and the Vikings won 29-22 . (WINNER)
Week 6: PHI -5.5. The game closed 7 and the Eagles won by 26-17. (WINNER)
Week 7: KC -1.5. The game closed -1 and the Chiefs won 44-23. (WINNER)
Week 8: NYG/SEA OVER 43: The game closed 44.5. Final Score: 27-13. (LOSS)
Week 9: LAC/ATL O47.5. The game closed 49.5. Final Score: 20-17. (LOSS)
Week 10: SF -3.5. The game closed SF -7.5. Final Score: 22-16. (WIN)
Week 11: BUF -7. The game closed -8. Final Score: 31-23 (WIN)
Week 12: PHI -6.5. The game closed -7. Final Score: 40-33 (WIN)
Week 13: MIN -3. Current line: -3. (PENDING)
Week 14: Minnesota Vikings/Detroit Lions o51 (-110)
After starting the year 7-2 on our lookahead bets and with MIN -3 in our pocket, we turn our attention to Week 14. The Minnesota and Detroit total simply doesn’t make sense to me. Offensively, both teams are bringing it. The Vikings have scored 20 or more points per game every week with the exception of two and both of those games were against the Cowboys and Eagles, 1 and 2 in pass DVOA. The Lions are bottom half of the league or worse in nearly every defensive metric and are giving up 28 points per game. On offense, the Lions have scored 24 or more in every game except against the league's 1st and 2nd best defense according to DVOA and another one in a win against division rival Green Bay. Minnesota is 24th among defenses and have had difficulty clamping down on just about everyone as they have been surrendering nearly 24 points per game this year. There are concerns that Minnesota could take their foot off the gas with such a big division lead, but with the first round bye and home field advantage still at stake, I doubt we see them mail it in, especially in a divisional game. Even if we do, I’d imagine that impact is felt more on the defensive side of the ball. Considering this is a dome game and a 1 o’clock start, we are only risking injury by playing this one early, but with getting the key number of 51, we strike early.
By Steve Rieder
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