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The Honda Classic: Tournament Best Bets, Buys & Fades Using Strokes Gained Data

· Chris Dell,Golf,PGA
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By Chris Dell

@MaddJournalist

To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here

Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.

In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.

Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.

  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

  • Strokes Gained: Approach

  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green

  • Strokes Gained: Putting

  • Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)

  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)

Overall Strokes Gained - Approach: Top Buys/Fades (RD4 Genesis Invitational)

Lee Hodges +2.39

Cameron Young +2.32

Mito Pereira +1.95

Rickie Fowler +1.51

—-

Alex Smalley -3.49

Kevin Tway -1.69

Brian Stuard -1.46

Overall Strokes Gained - Approach: Top Buys/Fades (All Rounds Genesis Invitational)

Joaquin Niemann +1.77

—

Brendan Steele -1.73 (CUT)

Patrick Reed -1.69 (CUT)

Kevin Tway -1.69

Doug Ghim -1.69 (CUT)

Strokes Gained Rating - Approach: Top Buys/Fades (RD4 Genesis Invitational)

Lee Hodges +4.93

Cameron Young +4.40

Joaquin Niemann +4.26

Doc Redman +3.68

Jhonattan Vegas +3.34

Rickie Fowler +3.18

Mito Pereira +3.01

—

Alex Smalley -5.78

Kevin Tway -3.75

Strokes Gained Rating - Approach: Top Buys/Fades (All Rounds Genesis Invitational)

N/A

Overall Strokes Gained - Off The Tee: Top Buys/Fades (RD4 Genesis Invitational)

N/A

Overall Strokes Gained - Off The Tee: Top Buys/Fades (All Rounds Genesis Invitational)

N/A

Strokes Gained Rating - Off The Tee: Top Buys/Fades (RD4 Genesis Invitational)

Joaquin Niemann +3.94

Jhonattan Vegas +3.52

Lee Hodges +3.04

Cameron Young +3.03

—

Sungjae Im -3.43

Strokes Gained Rating - Off The Tee: Top Buys/Fades (All Rounds Genesis Invitational)

Brendan Steele +3.50 (CUT)

Ryan Palmer +3.27 (CUT)

Overall Strokes Gained - Ball Striking: Top Buys/Fades (RD4 Genesis Invitational)

Cameron Young +3.25

—

Alex Smalley -3.53

Overall Strokes Gained - Ball Striking: Top Buys/Fades (All Rounds Genesis Invitational)

N/A

Strokes Gained Rating - Ball Striking: Top Buys/Fades (RD4 Genesis Invitational)

Lee Hodges +5.42

Cameron Young +5.34

—

Alex Smalley -5.82

Strokes Gained Rating - Ball Striking: Top Buys/Fades (All Rounds Genesis Invitational)

N/A

Overall Strokes Gained - Tee To Green: Top Buys/Fades (RD4 Genesis Invitational)

Matt Jones +4.78

Overall Strokes Gained - Tee To Green: Top Buys/Fades (All Rounds Genesis Invitational)

N/A

Strokes Gained Rating - Tee To Green: Top Buys/Fades (RD4 Genesis Invitational)

Joaquin Niemann +7.40

Matt Jones +6.71

—

Alex Smalley -6.72

Strokes Gained Rating - Tee To Green: Top Buys/Fades (All Rounds Genesis Invitational)

N/A

Overall Top Buys:

*****Cameron Young

****Lee Hodges

****Joaquin Niemann

**Matt Jones

**Jhonattan Vegas

**Mito Pereira

**Rickie Fowler

*Doc Redman

*Ryan Palmer

Overall Top Fades:

*****Alex Smalley

***Kevin Tway

*Sungjae Im

*Brian Stuard

*Doug Ghim

*Patrick Reed

First Round Head To Head Matchup Bets (0.5 Units):

Young -130 > Reed @ BO

Tournament Head To Head Matchup Bets (0.5 Units):

Fowler +100 > Reed @ DK

Jones -126 > Reed @ FD

Niemann -110 > Im @ MB

Miss Cut (0.25 Units):

Im +400 @ DK

Reed +152 @ FD

Top 20 (0.25 Units):

Niemann +120 @ FD

Top 40 (0.25 Units):

Young -110 @ DK

First Round Leader (0.05 Units:

Hodges 110:1 @ DK

Redman 110:1 @ DK

Steele 100:1 @ DK

Fowler 70:1 @ DK

Palmer 65:1 @ DK

Young 60:1 @ DK

Vegas 55:1 @ FD

Jones 55:1 @ MB

Pereira 55:1 @ MB

Niemann 35:1 @ MB

Outright Winners (0.05 Units:

Niemann 20:1 @ CZ

Vegas 45:1 @ CZ

Pereira 45:1 @ MB

Jones 50:1 @ DK

Young 55:1 @ DK

Palmer 55:1 @ DK

Fowler 70:1 @ MB

Steele 140:1 @ DK

Redman 200:1 @ BO

Hodges 200:1 @ DK

Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations

*Indicates the number of threshold metrics a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade" in out of:

Strokes Gained Putting

Strokes Gained Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Tee To Green

Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking

Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green

SGR = Strokes Gained Net Rating

BS = Ball Striking

OTT = Off The Tee

APP = Approach

PUTT = Putting

ARG = Around The Green

T2G = Tee To Green

FRL = First Round Leader

SRL = Second Round Leader

TRL = Third Round Leader

DK = DraftKings

FD = FanDuel

CZ = Caesars

BO = BetOnline

DSI = BetDSI

MB = MyBookie

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