By Chris Dell
To view the full spreadsheet of updated round to round data for our Strokes Gained Ratings, click here
Primer/Intro: Last fall, I outlined how we can look for strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament using strokes gained statistics, combined with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Ratings" (SGR) formula, we will determine our buys and fades for head-to-head matchup bets and DFS strategy from round to round. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others as well, but the primary focus will be on strokes gained putting, strokes gained approach and strokes gained off the tee. We will also refer below to "strokes gained ball striking," which is a combination of approach and off the tee numbers. Now let's dive into how exactly we'll use these numbers below.
In order to determine our buys and fades, we will simply subtract a golfer's strokes gained putting numbers from his strokes gained approach, off the tee and/or ball striking numbers. The premise here is that putting is often unpredictable and will regress more from round to round, whereas approach and tee to green (which combined equals "ball striking") are the "sticky" stats which indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment. Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "+3" or higher, while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of "-3" or lower. If two buys are facing each other in a head to head matchup bet, then we will pass, however we especially want to look for head to head opportunities where a "buy" is facing off directly with a "fade," and so on and so forth.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on a certain course/tournament, we will look to target certain stats specifically to determine out H2H, round to round matchup prop bets.
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
Please Note: The recommended unit sizes below can be easily calculated if you base your "unit size" on either $10 or $100 or $1,000 depending on your bankroll. To figure how much you should put down per bet, just take your typical unit size and then apply the recommendation listed below. For example, if your typical unit size is $100 per best bet, then you should be betting either $5 or $10 on the outright winners and first round leaders listed below. A "0.25 unit" bet would be $25. A "0.5 unit" bet would be $50 and a "0.75 unit" bet would be $75, and so on and so forth. You'll note for each weekend that I typically have at least 75-80% or more of my action on either tournament head to head matchup bets (72 holes) or round by round head to head matchup bets (18 holes). These bets provide us with two-way action (the ability to bet on either side) and the most EV we can get out of our strokes gained ratings model. The difference in unit sizes within our head to head bets will vary depending on how strong a buy/fade or how strong a matchup rating is between two golfers. We'll dive more into the specifics this in future articles as I further explain how to best utilize our strokes gained ratings model for actionable wagers. For now we'll keep things as simple as possible here and list everything by bet type and in order of recommended unit sizes.
If “GOLFER A” has a +5.5 SGR score after round 1 and is facing “GOLFER B” who has -5.5 score after round 1, then this round 2 head to head matchup will rate as a +11 and likely rank as one of best bets we have on the board. Typically we look for matchups that rate as a +4.5 or higher AND involve either one buy or one fade from round to round. If a matchup rates as +4.5 and involves two buys or two fades, we likely will pass on this matchup or make it a smaller bet than normal. If a buy is facing a fade directly, AND/OR if a matchup has a rating of +9 or higher, this will rate strongly as a best bet and we will make it a larger bet than normal. For more on this strategy, just read this article: To view my strokes gained ratings model from The Honda Classic, which includes RD4 data/”All Rounds” data, click here to view the spreadsheet:
ADDING AS OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
Outright Winner:
(0.10 Units) Zalatoris @ DSI 42:1
(0.10 Units) Lowry @ BO 45:1
(0.05 Units) Young @ FD 140:1
First Round Score
(0.25 Units) Spieth UNDER 72.5 @ DK -140
(0.25 Units) DeChambeau OVER 70.5 @ FD 154
First Round Leader/First Round Finish Props
(0.15 / 0.30) Zalatoris @ DK 35:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +163
(0.10 / 0.20) Homa @ Bet365 70:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +240
Tournament Finish Props:
(0.20 Units) Hovland T20 @ BO -110
(0.20 Units) Zalatoris T30 @ BR -150
(0.15) Lowry T30 @ BO -138
(0.15) Young T40 @ BR -120
(0.15) Homa T40 @ FD -130
(0.15) Spaun T40 @ BR +138
FULL TOURNAMENT BETTING CARD WITH ALL UPDATED WAGERS
Outright Winner Bets
(0.25 Units) Spieth @ Bet365 22:1
(0.15 Units) Morkiawa @ FD 22:1
(0.15 Units) Conners @ DSI 69:1
(0.10) Hovland @ DSI 22:1
(0.10) Zalatoris @ DSI 42:1
(0.10) Lowry @ BO 45:1
(0.10) Finau @ BO 75:1
(0.10) Woodland @ DK 100:1
(0.05 Units) Young @ FD 140:1
(0.05) List @ DK 180:1
(0.05) Z. Johnson @ BO 500:1
(0.05) Swafford @ BR 500:1
= 1.25 Units
Make/Miss Cut Props (0.25 Units Each)
Hideki MISS CUT @ Bet365 +240
Si Woo Kim MISS CUT @ DK +210
DeChambeau MISS CUT @ CZ +150
Westwood MISS CUT @ BR +110
Min Woo Lee MISS CUT @ BO -110
Kanaya MISS CUT @ BO -120
Higgo MISS CUT @ BR -134
Higgs MISS CUT @ BO -140
Z. Johnson MAKE CUT @ CZ +110
Swafford MAKE CUT @ CZ +150
= 2.5 Units
Lowest Round Score/First Round Score
(0.25 Units) Spieth UNDER 72.5 @ DK -140
(0.25 Units) DeChambeau OVER 70.5 @ FD -154
(0.15) Spieth @ DK 20:1
(0.10) Conners @ DK 35:1
(0.05) Finau @ BR 60:1
(0.05) Woodland @ BR 66:1
(0.05) List @ BR 100:1
(0.05) Z. Johnson @ BR 200:1
(0.05) Swafford @ BR 250:1
= 1 Unit
Tournament Finish Props (0.25 Units Unless Noted)
(0.50 Units) Spieth T30 @ FD -165
(0.25) Conners T30 @ Bet365 -125
(0.25) Finau T30 @ FD -120
(0.25) Woodland T30 @ BR +125
(0.25) List T40 @ FD +100
(0.25) Z. Johnson T40 @ FD +210
(0.25) Swafford T40 @ FD +220
(0.20) Hovland T20 @ BO -110
(0.20) Zalatoris T30 @ BR -150
(0.15) Lowry T30 @ BO -138
(0.15) Young T40 @ BR -120
(0.15) Homa T40 @ FD -130
(0.15) Spaun T40 @ BR +138
= 3.0 Units
Top Asian Player For Tournament (0.25 Units Unless Noted)
(0.75) Sungjae Im @ Bet365 +275
(0.15) K.H. Lee @ FD 10:1
(0.10) Nakajima @ BO 14:1
= 1 Unit
Top Former Winner For Tournament
(0.40 Units) Spieth @ BO +400
(0.10 Units) Z. Johnson @ BO 45:1
= 0.5 Units
Top Italian For Tournament
Molinari @ Bet365 -200
= 0.25 Units
Make The Final Grouping For Round 4 (0.1 Units Unless Noted)
(0.25) Spieth @ DK 10:1
(0.15) Conners @ DK 25:1
(0.10) Finau @ DK 28:1
(0.10) Woodland @ DK 45:1
(0.05) List @ FD 55:1
(0.05) Z. Johnson @ FD 170:1
(0.05) Swafford @ FD 170:1
= 0.75 Units
Winner Without DJ/JT/Rahm/Smith/Scheffler
(0.20) Spieth @ DK 12:1
(0.20) Conners @ DK 28:1
(0.10) Finau @ DK 35:1
(0.10) Woodland @ DK 55:1
(0.05) List @ DK 80:1
(0.05) Z. Johnson @ DK 150:1
(0.05) Swafford @ DK 180:1
= 0.75 Units
First Round Leader/First Round Finish
(0.10 / 0.35) Spieth @ DK 30:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +145
(0.10 / 0.30) Conners @ BO 50:1 / T20 @ FD +195
(0.10 / 0.25) Finau @ BO 50:1 / T20 @ FD +210
(0.05 / 0.20) Woodland @ Bet365 70:1 / T20 @ FD +260
(0.05 / 0.20) List @ CZ 80:1 / T20 @ FD +320
(0.05 / 0.10) Z. Johnson @ DK 150:1 / T20 @ FD +500
(0.05 / 0.10) Swafford @ DK 200:1 / T20 @ FD +550
—
(0.10 / 0.45) Rahm @ BO 22:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +110
(0.10 / 0.45) Cam Smith @ Bet365 25:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +120
(0.10 / 0.45) DJ @ BO 28:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +120
(0.10 / 0.45) JT @ BO 25:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +130
(0.10 0.40) Scheffler @ BO 28:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +120
(0.10 / 0.40) Hovland @ DK 28:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +138
(0.10 / 0.40) Morikawa @ BO 30:1 / T20 @ FD +135
(0.05 / 0.25) Lowry @ BO 50:1 / T20 @ FD +195
—
(0.10 / 0.30) Koepka @ BO 30:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +138
(0.10 / 0.25) Fitzpatrick @ BO 50:1 / T20 @ FD +195
(0.05 / 0.25) Niemann @ DK 55:1 / T20 @ FD +195
(0.05 / 0.20) Hatton @ BO 50:1 / T20 @ FD +220
(0.05 / 0.20) Horschel @ Bet 365 60:1 / T20 @ FD +250
(0.05 / 0.15) Fleetwood @ Bet365 60:1 / T20 @ FD +260
(0.05 / 0.15) Young @ Bet365 90:1 / T20 @ FD +290
(0.05 / 0.15) Gooch @ DK 70:1 / T20 @ FD +330
(0.05 / 0.15) Hoge @ FD 95:1 / T20 @ FD +360
(0.05 / 0.15) Spaun @ DK 130:1 / T20 @ FD +410
(0.05 / 0.10) Palmer @ FD 100:1 / T20 @ FD +490
(0.05 / 0.10) Straka @ DK 100:1 / T20 @ FD +490
(0.05 / 0.10) Cink @ FD 110:1 / T20 @ FD +550
—
(0.15 / 0.30) Zalatoris @ DK 35:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +163
(0.10 / 0.20) Homa @ Bet365 70:1 / T20 @ Bet365 +240
= 2.25 Units (First Round Leaders) / 7.5 Units (First Round Finishes)
First Round Nationality Props
(0.15) Conners Top REST OF WORLD @ Bet365 12:1
(0.10) Spieth Top U.S. @ Bet365 18:1
(0.05) Finau Top U.S. @ Bet365 25:1
(0.05) Woodland Top U.S. @ Bet365 35:1
(0.05) List Top U.S. @ Bet365 35:1
(0.05) Z. Johnson Top U.S. @ Bet365 55:1
(0.05) Swafford Top U.S. @ Bet365 55:1
= 0.5 Units
Tiger Woods Bonus Props
(0.15) Woods Top 30 @ BO +120
(0.10) Woods MAKE CUT @ BO +100
= 0.25 Units
Round 1 Matchups
Swafford > Min Woo Lee @ BO +100
Swafford > Higgs @ DK -120
List > Si Woo Kim @ BO +114
Z. Johnson > Si Woo Kim @ BR +130
Woods > Bryson @ DK +115
Casey > Bryson @ BO -138
Scheffler -0.5 > Hideki @ BO -133
Smith > Bryson/Casey @ FD +120
JT > Hideki/Piot @ FD -135
Couples > Migliozzi/Higgo @ CZ +250
= 2.5 Units
Tournament Matchups
Finau > Si Woo Kim @ DK +100
Niemann > Hideki @ FD -112
Burns > Bryson @ DK -160
Oosthuizen > Bryson @ FD -164
= 1 Unit
Full Tournament Card Breakdown
(2) Tiger Woods Bonus Props = 0.25 Units
(4) Tournament Matchups = 1 Unit
(6) Tournament Novelty Finishes = 1.75 Units
(7) Round 1 Nationality Props = 0.5 Units
(7) Final Grouping Props = 0.75 Units
(7) “Winner Without” Props = 0.75 Units
(9) Lowest Round Score/First Round Score = 1 Unit
(10) Round 1 Matchups = 2.5 Units
(10) Make/Miss Cut Props = 2.5 Units
(12) Outright Winner Props = 1.25 Units
(13) Tournament Finish Props = 3 Units
(30) Round 1 Leader Leader Props = 2.25 Units
(30) Round 1 Finish Props = 7.5 Units
Total = 25 Units
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
*Asterisk(s) indicates the number of statistical thresholds a golfer qualifies as a "buy" or "fade"
Strokes Gained Putting
Strokes Gained Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Tee To Green
Strokes Gained Gained Net Rating - Ball Striking
Strokes Gained Net Rating - Tee To Green
SGR = Strokes Gained Rating
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
FRL = First Round Leader
SRL = Second Round Leader
TRL = Third Round Leader
DK = DraftKings
FD = FanDuel
CZ = Caesars
BR = BetRivers
BO = BetOnline
DSI = BetDSI
MB = MyBookie
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes NFL fantasy rankings, player prop analysis, golf betting, DFS strategy and more, visit www.bettingpredators.com