Lead golf betting analyst Chris Dell breaks down his STROKES GAINED SCORES ("SG SCORES"), golfer ratings and top-rated matchup bets for Round 3 of the Travelers Championship - as well as golfers to back and bet against - using strokes gained data from his live betting/putting regression model. Read his FREE best bets, buys and fades column below. You can also access Chris' full daily betting card in our Betting Predators premium golf picks package.
By Chris Dell
@MaddJournalist
To view my free live betting model and "Strokes Gained Scores," calculated each round, click here
Primer/Intro: Using strokes gained statistics allows us to find strong edges after Round 1 of a given PGA tournament when we combine them with a little math. Using our "Strokes Gained Scores" putting regression formula, we are able to determine top buys and top fades for head-to-head matchup bets, DFS strategy and live betting opportunities from round to round as well. Depending on certain courses we might look at some metrics more than others, but most weekends the primary focus will be on strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, strokes gained ball-striking and tee-to-green.
The premise here is that strokes gained putting is wildly unpredictable and will vary from round to round, whereas strokes gained approach - as well as off the tee, ball-striking, and tee-to-green - are much "stickier" statistics which better indicate the golfers who are/aren't playing well in the moment.
Our "buy" golfers will be those with a strokes gained score of +1.0 or higher (rounded up from 0.95 if needed), while our "fade" golfers will be those with a strokes gained rating of -1.0 or lower (rounded down from -0.95 if needed). The goal for betting head-to-head matchups is to find two golfers whose SG SCORES combine to equal +1.0 or higher. For example, Golfer A's SG SCORE is +0.65 and Golfer B's SG SCORE is -0.50. Our SG MATCHUP SCORE then equals +1.10. I typically only bet these head-to-head matchups by using our "top fades" list and working down to all who have a -0.45 or SG SCORE or worse, and so on.
Strokes Gained is broken down into four categories, and depending on the type of course and field strength, we will look to target certain stats to determine our head-to-head live matchup bets during each round (starting after round one):
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green
Corey Conners, winner of the Valero Texas Open in April, is currently T10 at the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands
CHRIS DELL'S RD3 BONUS BETS
I'm adding eight new head-to-head matchup best bets for Round 3, as well as two new top finish bets, using "Strokes Gained Scores" and "strokes gained matchup scores" from my live betting/putting regression model. To get my full daily betting card, visit our Betting Predators premium picks portal. Our premium golf betting package also includes recommended bet sizes for each wager, as well as live finish bets and outright winner bets made after each and every round.
Here are my FREE, top-rated bets:
- +2.09 Blair > Knox @ FD -115
- +1.89 Palmer > Lipsky @ BO -130
- +1.74 Cam Young > Theegala @ BO -120
- +1.06 Finau > Day @ BO -130
RD3 Top Buys - STROKES GAINED SCORE
(Round 2 Data Only)
Tarren +1.62
Harman +1.40
Tway +1.09
JT +1.05
Cam Young +1.02
Cam Davis +0.95
RD3 Top Buys - STROKES GAINED TRUE RATING
(Round 2 Data Only)
Tarren +2.42
Harman +1.70
Cam Young +1.60
Grillo +1.43
Webb +1.36
Hideki +1.19
Conners +1.13
Palmer +1.00
Tway +0.99
RD3 Top Buys - STROKES GAINED SCORE
(Rounds 1-2 Data)
Conners +1.26
Tarren +1.17
Smalley +1.05
Palmer +1.01
RD3 Top Buys - STROKES GAINED TRUE RATING
(Rounds 1-2 Data)
Tarren +1.70
Smalley +1.39
Conners +1.30
Blair +1.12
Scheffler +1.07
Palmer +1.06
Grillo +1.01
JT +0.97
Hideki +0.97
RD3 Top Fades - STROKES GAINED SCORE
(Round 2 Data Only)
Svoboda -1.62
RD3 Top Fades - STROKES GAINED TRUE RATING
(Round 2 Data Only)
Svoboda -2.14
Lipsky -1.30
Knox -1.25
Lowry -1.00
Yu -0.96
RD3 Top Buys - STROKES GAINED SCORE
(Rounds 1-2 Data)
Theegala -1.22
RD3 Top Fades - STROKES GAINED TRUE RATING
Knox -0.97
For full access to all of my live betting picks for each round, check our PGA/Golf Premium Betting Package, which also includes all of our pre-tournament best bets and longshot picks for first round leader, outright winner and nationality/group props. You can save 50% by subscribing to our annual betting pass here.
Strokes Gained Ratings Key/Abbreviations
SG SCORE = Strokes Gained Score
BS = Ball Striking
OTT = Off The Tee
APP = Approach
PUTT = Putting
ARG = Around The Green
T2G = Tee To Green
Chris Dell is a lifelong sports journalist and news editor who has written for The New York Times, New York Daily News and Yahoo Sports, among other publications. He’s also the fantasy football/player props director and co-founder of The Betting Predators. For more of Chris’ sports content, which includes fantasy football rankings, player prop analysis, NFL Draft betting strategy, golf bets, DFS and much more, visit www.bettingpredators.com