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      • Hunting the NFL: How to Bet on Thursday Night Football
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      • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet on Injuries w/ Steve Rieder
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BETTING PREDATORS
  • Home
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    • NFL Best Bets & Full for Betting Card for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
    • Chris Dell's NFL Top Player Props for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
    • Sleepy's Best Bet Props for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
  • NFL 
    • NEW: NFL 2022 MID-SEASON PLAN/PRICE NOW AVAILABLE
    • NFL Power Ratings: Upgrades & Downgrades (Conference Championship)
    • Steve Rieder's NFL Betting Card Recap & Insights (Divisional Round)
    • NFL Actionable Stats to Know (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
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  • Fantasy 
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    • Chris Dell's Fantasy Football Rankings (Week 17 COMING SOON)
    • DFS DraftKings Tournament Preview (Week 17)
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  • Tools 
    • Join our FREE betting community on Discord
    • Subscribe to our FREE weekly betting newsletter on Substack
    • NFL Betting/Player Props Cheat Sheet: Updated Every Wednesday (NEW)
    • NFL Buy-Low Receiving Yards Player Prop Model: Updated Every Friday (NEW)
  • Sports 
    • NBA
    • NFL
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  • Strategy 
    • Hunting the NFL: How to Bet on Thursday Night Football
    • Hunting The NFL - Team Beat Reporters You Need To Follow
    • Hunting The NFL - How To Use Power Ratings & Make Actionable Bets in 2022
    • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet on Injuries w/ Steve Rieder
    • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet London Games w/ Steve Rieder
    • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
    • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
    • Hunting The UFC - Mixed Martial Arts Prop Betting
    • Hunting The Race Track - Finding An Edge With Driver Matchups in NASCAR
    • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
    • Hunting The MLB - Fading The Public On Team Narratives
  • About 
    • NEW: NBA PLAYER PROPS PACKAGE 2022-23 NOW LIVE
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    • Hunting The Pitch - Soccer Betting 101 & The Asia Line
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      • NFL Best Bets & Full for Betting Card for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
      • Chris Dell's NFL Top Player Props for Week 16 (PREMIUM)
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    • NFL 
      • NEW: NFL 2022 MID-SEASON PLAN/PRICE NOW AVAILABLE
      • NFL Power Ratings: Upgrades & Downgrades (Conference Championship)
      • Steve Rieder's NFL Betting Card Recap & Insights (Divisional Round)
      • NFL Actionable Stats to Know (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
      • NFL Situational Spots to Bet (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
      • NFL Betting Cheat Sheet: Top OL/DL Run Blocking Mismatches (Conference Championship COMING SOON)
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      • Hunting The NFL - Team Beat Reporters You Need To Follow
      • Hunting The NFL - How To Use Power Ratings & Make Actionable Bets in 2022
      • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet on Injuries w/ Steve Rieder
      • Hunting The NFL - How to Bet London Games w/ Steve Rieder
      • Hunting The NBA - Using Status Updates For Prop Bets
      • How To Bet Golf Using Strokes Gained Data (PGA)
      • Hunting The UFC - Mixed Martial Arts Prop Betting
      • Hunting The Race Track - Finding An Edge With Driver Matchups in NASCAR
      • How to win at sports betting: A guide to sustained profitability
      • Hunting The MLB - Fading The Public On Team Narratives
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PREMIUM

Hunting The MLB: Best Bet Pitcher Props For Tuesday, September 13th

Expecting aces to cash tickets - MLB handicapper Jay Ray gives you his best bets and top projection edges below:

By JayRay

@Jay_Rey41

It has been awhile since my last write up due to some much needed time away over the holiday weekend combined with the return of football season. To say time is crunched right now is an understatement. As baseball winds down and the masses turn their attention to football (myself included to some degree) there is still an opportunity to find value on the MLB board and zig when everyone zags. The last round of plays on  August 30th did not go well going 1-3 but we have some strong options today!

Tuesday, September 13th, 2022

Cubs @ Mets 7:10 p.m. ET

  • Cubs UNDER 0.5 runs first 5 innings (+100) Draftkings

One name immediately jumps off the board today, Jacob deGrom. Arguably the best pitcher in the game gets a home matchup vs a Cubs lineup that is probably ready to call it for the year. Starting with the Cubs, yesterday I tweeted out a play on Chris Bassitt to hold the Cubs under 1.5 runs through the first 5 innings. This season vs pitchers with sub 3 ERAs the cubs allow pitchers to average

  • 5.2 innings 

  • 1.6 earned runs

  • 1.3 runs in the first 5

deGrom’s numbers are significantly better with a 1.66 ERA and 0.55 WHIP. His xERA is only slightly higher at 1.8. In 7 starts this year he has allowed more than 1 run twice, both of which were to Atlanta who we can all agree is significantly better than the Cubs (top 10 offense vs league average). He has also been taking on an increased workload going 87 or more pitches in 4 straight. When going over 90 pitches he has gotten into the 7th inning each time. Lastly, the Braves recent push has made for a tight NL East race and the Mets can’t afford to be too careful with deGrom as they need wins. You cannot go wrong backing deGrom.    

Cardinals @ Brewers 7:45 p.m. ET

  • Jordan Montgomery OVER 17.5 outs up to (-140)

    *no lines at time of publishing, will add updates on twitter when available

Since joining the Cardinals Jordan Montgomery has been lights out. He has made 7 starts, given up more than 1 run once, and allowed 0 runs 4 times. One of those starts was against today’s opponent, the Brewers. In that start he went 6 innings, gave up 4 hits, and 0 runs. The flip side of this is that all of these starts have been at home with the exception of 1 (at Chicago where he threw a 1 hit shutout). For the season Montgomery’s home road splits are similar and nothing concerning jumps out. 

As for the Brewers, they have had their struggles vs lefties this year with an 87 WRC+. Since the all star break they are averaging 1.25 earned runs against lefties over an average of 5.1 innings. The innings sounds low but it's largely due to the quality of pitchers they have faced. Urias, Heaney, Steele, and Freeland are some of the better arms they have faced and Heaney gets pulled early regularly. The question for Montgomery is how deep will he go? The Cardinals have pulled him under 90 pitches on occasion and have an 8 game lead over the Brewers so they may choose to do it again if the situation dictates to manage his workload as the postseason approaches.

Phillies @ Marlins 6:40 p.m. ET

  • Sandy Alcantara OVER 19.5 outs up to (-120)
    *no lines at time of publishing, will add updates on twitter when available

I see Sandy Alcantara as a buy low today, if you could ever consider him a buy low. While he remains the hands down Cy Young favorite he has had a few rough outings recently by his standards. 

  • 9/8  @ PHI - 6 innings 3 earned runs (5 total)

  • 9/2 @ ATL - 5 innings 6 runs

  • 8/21 @ LAD - 3.2 innings 6 runs

The theme is road starts vs strong line ups. While a true ace he is even more dominant at home. His ERA is 1.61 at home vs 3.38 on the road. He averages almost 7.2 innings, 1.3 earned runs, and 104 pitches per home start (less than 100 pitches once in last 12 home starts). A great example of his home success is that after the 3.2 inning disaster at Dodger stadium he bounced back at home throwing a complete game allowing 1 run vs the very same Dodgers lineup. 

Now for the opponent. The Phillies have seen Sandy 5 times this year and I have added the results below.

The theme with these is Mattingly leaving him in too long and giving up runs late as he has held the Phillies under 1 run 4 times in the first 5 innings. The most recent start had several “flukey” events. In the 4th inning he gave up a single to Hoskins with an expected batting average of .160 and a 2 run double to Stott with an exit velocity of 63.7 mph (it traveled a whopping 199 feet). In the 5th an error led to 3 additional batters coming to the plate and 2 unearned runs. I would call these breaks bad variance and if they didn't occur assume he would have pitched in the 7th, given up less than 1.5 in the first 5, and 2 or 3 runs overall. To apply another angle to the Phillies offense outside of just games against Sandy Alcantara, they have had 8 road games against pitchers who have performed similarly to Alcantara this season (Gallen, Scherzer, deGrom, Strider, Burnes). In those games starters have averaged 6.1 innings and 1.3 earned runs and 1.1 runs in the first 5 innings. Everything points to Sandy getting back on track.

If you have any questions, feel free to send me a message on twitter, @JayRay. Best of luck! Best of luck and don't forget to check out the Betting Predators Discord for football DFS and betting info!

- Jay Ray, Special to The Betting Predators           

 

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